The most popular politics disadvantage last week was certainly tax reform. This is the straight-up political capital story – Trump needs capital to get tax reform passed, the liberal plan alienates moderate Democrats and conservatives that are needed for tax reform, tax reform good. Popular impacts include: Tax reform important to economy growth; tax reform critical to the aerospace industry (defense and space exploration impacts); tax reform critical to pharmaceutical industry’ tax reform critical to the life sciences.
The second most popular political capital disadvantage was DACA (Deferred Action for early Childhood Arrivals). Similar to tax reform, this disadvantage argues that Trump’s capital is needed to get Congress to agree to a DACA legislative solution. The argument is that if there is no solution and the 800,000 Dreamers are deported that it will have a tremendous negative impact on the economy and military readiness. The link emphasizes that Trump’s relationship with more conservative Republicans are tenuous, that the plan will alienate them, and that he needs their support on DACA.
The more general base disadvantage that was written this summer also got some play. The argument is that Trump will compensate for any significant loss of base support caused by the plan with a strike on North Korea that will kill millions of people.
The other set of disadvantages focused on the midterms. The basic argument is that the Democrats will win a majority in the Senate (and some teams claim the House) in the 2018 midterms but if Trump gets a legislative victory on a popular item such as the plan that this will undermine the Democrats’ chances. Some different impacts were read – Democrats key to maintain programs that fight climate change, Democrats key to prevent legislation that reduces immigration (immigration good for the economy, the military), Democrats key to impeach Trump, with a Trump destroys democracy impact.
That is a brief overview of the politics arguments run last weekend. Looking forward, I suggest a few things —
(A) If you are interested in politics, pick one scenario, develop it, and prepare to win it.
(B) If you are a 2AC, make sure you have answers to each of these arguments
You can find evidence for both A & B here, with daily updates.
Looking forward to next weekend, you should pay particular attention to the new push to repeal Obamacare and replace it with Medicaid block grant funding to the states. This legislation has gained new momentum and September 30th is the last day Republicans can pass legislation under the budget reconciliation rules, which only require a majority vote. If the Republicans don’t get the repeal done by September 30th, repeal is hopeless, so there will be an all-out press on this over the next 10 days. While I can’t think of a way to turn this into a disadvantage itself, on the Aff you are going to want to argue this “Thumps” the agenda. On the Negative, you are going to need to be able to answer that thumper.