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Georgetown 2019

Georgetown 2019

The Georgetown camp has released their arguments. These include —

Taiwan Aff

F-16V sales (a potential sale next year) are bad because The sale of those advanced jets will blur the defensive/offensive grey line, which breaks strategic ambiguity, makes other threats credible, and causes allied balancing against China – together that humiliates Xi and causes CCP lash-out – no capabilities DA, jets aren’t actually militarily significant to. Xi could lash out and cause war

Relations.   Arms sales hurt relations, destroying cooperation on terrorism, nuclear proliferation, and disease cooperation. Relations are probably also needed to reach a trade agreement that is critical to the economy.

Diesel subs. US arms sales encourage China to develop diesel subs that increase war risks.

Indigenous development. US arms sales discourage the development of Indigenous Taiwanese defense technology that could actually deter Chinese aggression.

These are the key cites/arguments in the file

Saudi Arabia Affirmative

This is the typical Saudi Arabia affirmative case.

Democracy Good/Bad

Debt Ceiling Politics

This disadvantage argues that political conflict will make it too difficult to resolve debt ceiling issues and that a failure to increase the debt ceiling will destroy the economy.   This is a good politics disadvantage to prep in the summer because it will be a big issue in the fall.

China and Russia Fill-In

If the US doesn’t sell weapons, China and/or Russia will sell weapons, increasing the risk the weapons will be used and that their defense industries will be strengthened.

Executive Power Good

Reigning Trump in on Saudi Arabia will undermine Presidential executive power, increasing war risks.

Security Kritik

This is just a standard security kritik, though there is a lot of evidence that focuses kritiking claims regarding the China threat.

Weaponitis Kritik.

It is bad to focus on weapons as the way to prevent war.

Topicality

There are just the standard definitions and arguments here.

Defense Industrial Base. This disadvantage argues that arms sales strengthen the defense industrial base and that that is important to deterrence/hegemony and space exploration and devleopment.

KEY  Taiwan Arguments —

Trump will sell Taiwan F-16V jets – it’s a big policy shift that China views as counterbalancing

Sputnik 19 —- citing Paul Huang who is an East Asian columnist for The Epoch Times and master’s candidate at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy (Tufts University) along with Benjamin Cavender who is the Director of The China Market Research Group and MBA (Columbia University), “How Can Prospect of Taiwanese F-16 Procurement Affect US Trade Talks With China?” 3/26, https://sputniknews.com/analysis/201903261073564311-f-16-taiwan/

The sale of those advanced jets will blur the defensive/offensive grey line, which breaks strategic ambiguity, makes other threats credible, and causes allied balancing against China – together that humiliates Xi and causes CCP lash-out – no capabilities DA, jets aren’t actually militarily significant to

Lee 19 —- John, senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, non-resident senior fellow at the United States Studies Center in Sydney, former senior national security adviser to Australian

Independent of CCP legitimacy, the sale of advanced jets causes Chinese retaliation via Taiwanese elections interference

Ivandjiiski 19 —- Daniel, former investment banker and capital markets trader, writes under the pseudonym “Tyler Durden” on Zero Hedge, “Beijing Threatens ‘Retaliation’ Over Sale Of F-16s To Taiwan,” 3/22, https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-03-22/beijing-threatens-retaliation-over-sale-f-16s-taiwan

Increases election interference crushes global democracy by establishing a sham government in the KMT and allowing China to practice its interference

Rogin 19 —- Josh, political analyst for The Washington Post and CNN, foreign policy and national security for Bloomberg View, B.A. in international affairs (George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs), former military reporting fellow with the Knight Center for Specialized Journalism, “The United States Must Help Taiwan Resist Chinese Dominance,” The Washington Post, 3/28, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/the-united-states-must-help-taiwan-resist-chinese-dominance/2019/03/28/c6c07868-5188-11e9-8d28-f5149e5a2fda_story.html

China views arms sales as a violation of the one-China principle – that crushes US/China relations

Chung 19 —- Lawrence Chung is a correspondent for the South China Morning Post with a master’s degree in journalism, “Beijing Says Washington’s US$500 Million Arms Sale to Taiwan ‘Damaged Sino-US Relations,’” 4/24, South China Morning Post, https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3007446/beijing-says-washingtons-us500-million-arms-sale-taiwan

Deals don’t shape regional security, but are symbolic enough to threaten cooperation on terror, prolif, and disease

Chung and Zhen 18 —- Lawrence Chung is a correspondent for the South China Morning Post with a master’s degree in journalism, Liu Zhen is a correspondent for the South China Morning Post, “Beijing Tells US to Cancel US$330 Million Taiwan Arms Deal,” 9/25, South China Morning Post, https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/2165609/us-announces-new-taiwan-arms-deal-worth-us330-million

US sale of sub tech encourages Taiwanese development of domestic diesel subs

AFP 18 —- Agence France-Presse via The South China Morning Post, “US Gives Boost to Taiwan’s Plans to Build Submarines,” 4/8, https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2140771/us-gives-boost-taiwans-plans-build-submarines

US sale of sub tech encourages Taiwanese development of domestic diesel subs

AFP 18 —- Agence France-Presse via The South China Morning Post, “US Gives Boost to Taiwan’s Plans to Build Submarines,” 4/8, https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2140771/us-gives-boost-taiwans-plans-build-submarines

US sale of sub tech encourages Taiwanese development of domestic diesel subs

AFP 18 —- Agence France-Presse via The South China Morning Post, “US Gives Boost to Taiwan’s Plans to Build Submarines,” 4/8, https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2140771/us-gives-boost-taiwans-plans-build-submarines /naval/2017/04/07/taiwan-struggles-to-acquire-5-types-of-submarine-tech-for-local-program/

Indigenous subs don’t have warfighting benefits but risk China/Taiwan warencourage preemptive Chinese attacks and undercut Taiwanese deterrence by trading off with the acquisition of more effective weapons and incentivizing Chinese advancements in anti-submarine warfare

Montgomery 14 —- Evan Braden, Senior Fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, M.A. and Ph.D. in Foreign Affairs (University of Virginia), B.A. in Political Science and Sociology (Villanova University), “Rethinking Taiwan’s Submarine Dream,” Real Clear Defense, 10/27, https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2014/10/28/time_for_taiwan_to_rethink_its_submarine_dream_107516.html

More broadly, Taiwan’s reliance on US arms sales of high-end weapons trades-off with viable asymmetric deterrence of a Chinese invasion

Hunzeker and Lanoszka 18 —- Michael A. Hunzeker is an assistant professor at the Schar School of Policy and Government (George Mason University), former postdoctoral research associate and lecturer in public affairs (Princeton University), Ph.D. in Public Affairs (Princeton University), Master’s Degree in Public Affairs (Princeton University), B.A. in political science (University of California, Berkeley), Alexander Lanoszka is an assistant professor (University of Waterloo), former US Foreign Policy and International Security Fellow (Dartmouth University), former Stanton Nuclear Security Postdoctoral Fellow (Massachusetts Institute of Technology), M.A. and Ph.D. in Politics (Princeton University), and B.A. in IR (University of Windsor), A Question of Time: Enhancing Taiwan’s Conventional Deterrence Posture, Center for Security Policy Studies, Schar School of Policy and Government (George Mason University), November, http://csps.gmu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/A-Question-of-Time.pdf ***Modified for language

The trade-off is real – Taiwanese investments in flashy capabilities the US is key to crowd-out more effective asymmetric capabilities – prioritize elastic denial-in-defense over traditional deterrence that focuses on the grey zone and into more escalatory postures

Hunzeker and Lanoszka 18 —- Michael A. Hunzeker is an assistant professor at the Schar School of Policy and Government (George Mason University), former postdoctoral research associate and lecturer in public affairs (Princeton University), Ph.D. in Public Affairs (Princeton University), Master’s Degree in Public Affairs (Princeton University), B.A. in political science (University of California, Berkeley), Alexander Lanoszka is an assistant professor (University of Waterloo), former US Foreign Policy and International Security Fellow (Dartmouth University), former Stanton Nuclear Security Postdoctoral Fellow (Massachusetts Institute of Technology), M.A. and Ph.D. in Politics (Princeton University), and B.A. in IR (University of Windsor), A Question of Time: Enhancing Taiwan’s Conventional Deterrence Posture, Center for Security Policy Studies, Schar School of Policy and Government (George Mason University), November, http://csps.gmu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/A-Question-of-Time.pdf

Bolstering Taiwan’s deterrence of Chinese grey zone intrusions causes more escalatory approaches – risks war

Hunzeker and Lanoszka 18 —- Michael A. Hunzeker is an assistant professor at the Schar School of Policy and Government (George Mason University), former postdoctoral research associate and lecturer in public affairs (Princeton University), Ph.D. in Public Affairs (Princeton University), Master’s Degree in Public Affairs (Princeton University), B.A. in political science (University of California, Berkeley), Alexander Lanoszka is an assistant professor (University of Waterloo), former US Foreign Policy and International Security Fellow (Dartmouth University), former Stanton Nuclear Security Postdoctoral Fellow (Massachusetts Institute of Technology), M.A. and Ph.D. in Politics (Princeton University), and B.A. in IR (University of Windsor), A Question of Time: Enhancing Taiwan’s Conventional Deterrence Posture, Center for Security Policy Studies, Schar School of Policy and Government (George Mason University), November, http://csps.gmu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/A-Question-of-Time.pdf

There are a lot of defensive arguments in the file, plus two disadvantages —