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NSDA Politics Update

Mexico will ratify

Inside US Trade, June 14, 2019, Trump urges Congress to pass USMCA as Mexico, Canada take steps toward ratification
Lopez Obrador on Monday said he could “assure” that USMCA would be ratified “in a week, or next week.” The Mexican House of Commons does not have to approve the deal for it to be ratified in Mexico.

Pelosi will support

The Frontrunner, 6-14, 19, Trump: House Democrats Are Final Impediment To USMCA’s Passage

Bloomberg (6/13, Leonard, 4.73M), however, reports that Pelosi has “designated members of her caucus to negotiate with the White House on changes” to the deal, “signaling momentum towards an eventual floor vote, according to two people familiar with the matter.” Rep. Richard Neal (D-MA), chairman of the Ways and Means Committee, “will lead the group that will negotiate directly with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer.”

Canada will ratify

Impact News Service, June 15, 2019, Nearly 1,000 Agricultural Groups Call on Congress to Ratify USMCA

She left open the possibility that Canada could move forward with ratification without the U.S. if time does not permit the tandem approach envisioned by Canadian leaders. “We’re moving ahead with NAFTA ratification. Our government — and for our American colleagues let me remind you, we have a majority in Parliament — has a clear and very confident intention to move ahead with NAFTA ratification,” she said. “This is a good deal for Canada and we will get it done, get it ratified. Our intention insofar as possible is to move in tandem with the U.S. legislative process. That is obviously not something we can control. But we’re working hard to have a very good, robust conversation with our American colleagues — first and foremost Ambassador Lighthizer, who’s in charge here — but also to develop a nuanced understanding of positions of people on [Capitol Hill].”

Congressional-Presidential fight reduces the chances of passage

National Journal Daily Extra AM, 9-13, 19, , Clock Ticks for Speedy USMCA Deal as Pelosi Forms Working Group

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has pushed back on Trump administration pressure to quickly advance the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement on trade. Now, shes ready to have her caucus hash out the final details of a deal with the White House, but many of the same process and political obstacles remainall with about 20 legislative days left to pass a bill enacting the trade pact by August. A protracted fight with the White House or Democratic infighting over details of the bill could gum up the process, however. And with a battle over government funding set for September, the legislative bandwidth would be tight when lawmakers get back from recess.

USMCA critical to US agriculture

Impact News Service, June 15, 2019, Nearly 1,000 Agricultural Groups Call on Congress to Ratify USMCA

Nearly 1,000 food and agricultural groups are urging Congressional leaders to quickly ratify the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which will lead to improved agricultural trade, new job creation, and increased availability of nourishing, affordable food for all Americans. Every day of delay prevents the American people from feeling the benefits of this new agreement. Will Speaker Pelosi finally bring USMCA to the House floor for ratification?Click here or read below to see the full letter of support and the list of supporting organizations.Dear Speaker Pelosi, Minority Leader McCarthy, Majority Leader McConnell and Minority Leader Schumer,We, the undersigned organizations representing all segments of the U.S food and agriculture value chain at the national, state and local levels, write to urge your strong support for swift ratification of the U.S -Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). USMCA will benefit the U.S agriculture and food industry while providing consumers a more abundant supply of high-quality, safe food at affordable prices.Over the last 25 years, U.S food and agricultural exports to Canada and Mexico have more than quadrupled under NAFTA – growing from $9 billion in 1993 to nearly $40 billion in 2018. NAFTA has significantly helped create a reliable, high-quality supply of food products for U.S consumers, while supporting more than 900,000 American jobs in food and agriculture and related sectors of the economy. USMCA builds on the success of the NAFTA agreement, and will ultimately lead to freer markets and fairer trade. This modernized trade agreement makes improvements to further enhance U.S food and agricultural exports to our neighbors and would deliver an additional $2.2 billion in U.S economic activity. The International Trade Commission’s new report, the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement: Likely Impact on the U.S Economy and Specific Industry Sectors, confirms that the USMCA will improve market access for U.S farmers, ranchers and food producers. The report states that USMCA would have “a positive impact on the U.S agriculture sector.” Furthermore, it “would likely have a positive impact on all broad industry sectors within the U.S economy”, raising U.S GDP by $68.2 billion. USMCA further strengthens U.S food and agricultural trade by enhancing standards for biotechnology; reducing the use of trade distorting policies; establishing modern, science-based sanitary and phytosanitary standards; reinforcing disciplines for science-based SPS measures; improving grading standards and services; facilitating the marketing of food and agricultural products; and strengthening safeguards for commonly used food names. These advances help provide certainty in the North American market, which is essential to the success of American agriculture and retailers. Given the significance of USMCA for the U.S agriculture and food industry, we strongly urge that it be considered quickly, and we respectfully ask you to vote to ratify the agreement.

Pelosi won’t work with Trump

National Journal Daily Extra AM, 9-13, 19, , Clock Ticks for Speedy USMCA Deal as Pelosi Forms Working Group

Pelosis effort to work with the White House on a USMCA deal comes as her relationship with the president is at a low point. The two have traded barbs over the past two weeks, with Pelosi reportedly saying shed rather see the president in prison than impeached and Trump calling the House speaker a disgrace to her family in response.

Won’t pass – making changes that appease the Democrats alienate the Republicans

National Journal Daily Extra AM, 9-13, 19, , Clock Ticks for Speedy USMCA Deal as Pelosi Forms Working Group

Democrats want to reopen the agreement to strengthen enforceability, but the White House has said thats too difficult and any changes should be in the domestic legislation. Either way, tweaking the USMCA to get enough Democratic votes to pass the House may create problems in the Senate, where Republicans could be torn between voting for one of the Trump administrations key legislative priorities, or opposing it because it contains provisions they find disagreeable, Sands said. Were expecting to see something with some interesting twists in the implementing legislation, he said.

USMCA push this summer, it will pass

Myron Brilliant is executive vice president and head of international affairs at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, 6-14-19, https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/14/why-approving-usmca-is-an-urgent-priority-us-chamber-of-commerce-exec.html US Chamber of Commerce executive: Why Approving USMCA is an urgent priority

The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement looms over the congressional agenda this summer. Important talks between the administration and congressional Democrats over lingering concerns are ongoing, and these concerns should not be minimized. But USMCA will create certainty in the marketplace, boost economic growth and job creation and pave the way for future trade talks. GP: USMCA Trade NAFTA Key World Leaders Attend The G-20 Summit Enrique Pena Nieto, Mexico’s president, from front left, U.S. president Donald Trump, and Justin Trudeau, Canada’s prime minister, sit for photographs as Ildefonso Guajardo Villarreal, Mexico’s secretary of economy, from back left, Robert Lighthizer, U.S. trade representative, and Chrystia Freeland, Canada’s minister of foreign affairs, stand after signing the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) at the G-20 Leaders’ Summit in Buenos Aires, Argentina, on Friday Nov. 30, 2018. Sarah Pabst | Bloomberg | Getty Images The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement looms over the congressional agenda this summer. In recent weeks, officials have rolled up their sleeves and begun to prepare the ground for a positive vote on this landmark trade agreement. Approval of USMCA is an urgent priority for the U.S. business and agriculture community. While Washington wouldn’t be recognizable without partisan differences, the constructive engagement on USMCA between the administration and Congress has been noteworthy. Forward movement is also evident in the recent passage of landmark labor reform by Mexico’s Congress and news that legislatures in both Canada and Mexico are beginning consideration of the pact. In fact, Mexico’s Senate may vote as soon as next week. Another critical step forward came on May 17, when the administration announced it was dropping its tariffs on steel and aluminum from Canada and Mexico. Ending those tariffs and the retaliatory duties levied by our North American neighbors has unleashed a new wave of congressional and business support for USMCA. One by one, obstacles are being removed. Important talks between the administration and congressional Democrats over lingering concerns are ongoing, and these concerns should not be minimized. But it’s also true that USMCA approval has taken on a fierce urgency to create certainty in the marketplace, boost economic growth and job creation, and pave the way for future trade talks.

USMCA key to the economy

Myron Brilliant is executive vice president and head of international affairs at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, 6-14-19, https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/14/why-approving-usmca-is-an-urgent-priority-us-chamber-of-commerce-exec.html US Chamber of Commerce executive: Why Approving USMCA is an urgent priority

Certainty. An early vote for USMCA will provide U.S. businesses from every sector—from agriculture to manufacturing and services—the certainty that their exports to Canada and Mexico will enter those markets duty-free. This certainty is invaluable because these two markets are invaluable to American business. U.S. trade with Canada and Mexico: Reached nearly $1.4 trillion last year, or $3.8 billion daily; Supports 12 million American jobs spread across every state in the union; Is vital for U.S. manufacturers, who export more made-in-America manufactured goods to Canada and Mexico than they do to the next 11 largest export markets combined; Accounts for nearly one-third of U.S. agricultural exports; and Powered growth in U.S. services exports from $27 billion in 1993 to $91 billion in 2017. Certainty is what American job-creators require if they are to make brick-and-mortar investments and create more jobs for the long haul. Growth. USMCA isn’t just about holding on to what you’ve got. USMCA will boost economic growth by improving the market access guaranteed for U.S. businesses. For example, the agreement further opens the Canadian market to U.S. agricultural exports such as dairy products, poultry, and wine. U.S. farmers and ranchers have faced five years of declining commodity prices, so USMCA’s improved market access is more than welcome. And make no mistake: These are growth markets. U.S. exports to Mexico and Canada have grown more over the past decade than sales to any other country. In each case, exports have expanded by more than $100 billion annually. No other market comes close. In fact, Mexico and Canada accounted for about 40% of the growth in U.S. goods exports in dollar terms over the past decade. In particular, USMCA promises growth for America’s small and midsized exporters. Canada and Mexico are the top two export destinations for U.S. small and medium-size enterprises, more than 120,000 of which sell their goods and services in our two North American neighbors. When an American small business starts exporting, it’s almost always to Canada or Mexico. Modernization. USMCA also promises substantial new benefits by modernizing the rules for commerce in North America to reflect the realities of 21st century trade. Deferring enactment of the agreement means deferring these benefits. To illustrate, when NAFTA was negotiated a quarter century ago, there was no e-commerce, so it’s no surprise the agreement did not address this booming sector. Here, USMCA’s digital trade chapter sets a new, high standard. Similarly, USMCA modernizes protection for intellectual property. The cutting-edge medicines known as biologics are a case in point—the old NAFTA did not protect them for the simple reason that they had not yet been invented. All kinds of industries will benefit from modernizing trade rules in this way. Precedent. USMCA’s path-breaking provisions will serve as a precedent for future trade agreements and provide benefits that will multiply in the years ahead—but only if Congress approves USMCA. For example, USMCA prohibits “behind the border” barriers against U.S. exports. Too often, foreign governments deploy regulations or standards in an arbitrary way to block imports. USMCA halts this kind of protectionism in disguise. USMCA also raises the bar with binding enforcement for all chapters. This includes labor and the environment, which were not subject to state-to-state dispute settlement under the NAFTA. The U.S. is beginning trade negotiations with Japan, the EU, and potentially other countries. Approving USMCA will allow these breakthroughs to serve as a precedent that will shape these agreements. The Trump administration negotiated a good deal with Canada and Mexico and it deserves to be approved without delay. Approving USMCA will provide job creators with the certainty they need to invest and hire, and the improved market access it promises will spur economic growth. It will modernize North American trade in ways that set a positive precedent for future trade talks. Each day that passes without approving USMCA is a day that these benefits are deferred. Let’s build on our momentum and seize these benefits.

Two thirds chance USMCA passes now

Vivian Salama, June 11, 2019 https://www.wsj.com/articles/mulvaney-sees-approval-of-usmca-trade-deal-likely-11560292213

Mulvaney Sees Approval of USMCA Trade Deal Likely Acting White House chief of staff also defends Trump’s use of tariff threat with Mexico in border talks Mick Mulvaney, speaking at The Wall Street Journal CFO Network meeting, said the West Wing has found a happy medium between the wide-open, undisciplined days of the president’s first chief of staff and the rigid structure of his second. PHOTO: MARK WILSON/GETTY IMAGES By Vivian Salama Updated June 11, 2019 7:38 p.m. ET WASHINGTON—The U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement has “a better than two-thirds chance” of passing through Congress this year, President Trump’s acting chief of staff said Tuesday, adding its approval depends on support among House Democrats. Acting White House Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney says he has found a happy medium between the management styles of John Kelly and Reince Priebus that suits President Trump’s unconventional style. Speaking at The Wall Street Journal CFO Network meeting, Mick Mulvaney said the successor deal to the North American Free Trade Agreement has many supporters in the House, and a likely majority in the full chamber, but Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D., Calif.) is unlikely to bring it to the floor without a clear majority of Democrats. “I don’t think Nancy can bring it to the floor until she has something approaching the majority” in her own party, he said. “We know there are champions of this bill in the House. We know that labor supports it; we know that agriculture supports it; we know that manufacturing supports it, although the typical Rust Belt Democrats—that’s their base, they support this deal and they know that it’s better than Nafta.” Mrs. Pelosi has signaled they won’t allow a vote on USMCA without certain changes, including easier enforcement of new rules designed to strengthen labor rights in Mexico. The deal must still be ratified by the U.S., Canada and Mexico to go into effect. In her own comments Monday, Mrs. Pelosi said enforcing the new provisions was key. Labor rights are central to her base, which wants to raise wages in Mexico to reduce the incentive to ship jobs outside the U.S.

Vote soon on the USMCA

Fortune, May 30, 2019, My Fellow Democrats Are Skeptical About the USMCA. They Shouldn’t Be, Gary Locke is honorary co-chairman of the Pass USMCA Coalition and previously served as governor of Washington, as the U.S. ambassador to China, and as secretary of commerce.

Congress will soon vote on the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), a landmark trade pact finalized by all three nations last November. This deal—which includes 34 chapters on trade issues ranging from intellectual property and digital trade to rules of origin and technical barriers—is a historic victory for workers. It would guarantee fairer pay through wage requirements, ensure safe working environments, and strengthen workers’ rights to unionize for better benefits.

USMCA protects the economy and labor

Fortune, May 30, 2019, My Fellow Democrats Are Skeptical About the USMCA. They Shouldn’t Be, Gary Locke is honorary co-chairman of the Pass USMCA Coalition and previously served as governor of Washington, as the U.S. ambassador to China, and as secretary of commerce.

Despite these labor-friendly provisions, my fellow Democrats have been slow to endorse the USMCA but their hesitation—mostly over enforceability measures for North American laborers—is unwarranted. Ratifying the agreement is the surest way to improve the lives of workers across North America. Just look at how the deal helps auto workers: To qualify for tariff-free treatment, the USMCA requires 40 to 45% of a vehicle’s parts to be manufactured by North American workers earning at least $16 an hour. This provision would help deter auto companies from shutting down U.S. and Canadian factories and outsourcing production to Mexico, where auto workers make just $3.14 an hour on average. The USMCA also incentivizes automakers to shift production from Europe and Asia to North America. Currently, under NAFTA, vehicles qualify for tariff-free treatment if 62.5% or more of their value comes from North America. The USMCA would raise that requirement to 75%. This would encourage multinational auto manufacturers to build more vehicles at U.S. factories and source more parts from American suppliers, rather than import those parts from abroad. Toyota recently announced an additional $750 million investment in five U.S. plants, presumably in anticipation of Congress ratifying the USMCA. According to a recent survey by LevaData, nine in 10 U.S. auto executives agree that the trade deal would increase auto manufacturing across North America. And 53% of those polled said it would provide a net gain for both workers and consumers. The USMCA also helps labor unions expand their presence in Mexico by requiring the country give all workers the right to organize, join the union of their choice, and engage in collective bargaining activities. To protect these rights, Mexico would have to create a system of independent courts charged with settling labor disputes—and some Democrats have been skeptical that Mexico would actually enforce this provision. But the Mexican Senate just overhauled the country’s labor rules, guaranteeing union independence from management’s influence, and ensuring that labor disputes can be settled in a timely fashion. Such changes signal that our southern neighbor has the intention of following through on its end of the bargain. As Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador remarked after the labor bill’s passage, “two purposes are accomplished: the main one is that it benefits Mexican workers… but it also fulfills the commitment that was made with the government of the United States.” He’s right. The USMCA protects all workers, regardless of industry. The deal, for instance, compels the U.S., Mexico, and Canada to protect migrant workers from exploitative practices and cracks down on gender discrimination in the workplace. For instance, all three countries must also adopt more extensive policies that impede employment discrimination based on “sex (including with regard to sexual harassment), pregnancy, sexual orientation, gender identity, and caregiving responsibilities.” Additionally, under the USMCA, each signatory nation must grant parental leave in the event of a child’s birth or adoption. Moreover, the USMCA strictly prohibits all forms of compulsory labor, including child labor, within the three countries. NAFTA didn’t completely ban compulsory work and allowed Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. to make some exceptions to permit certain forms of it. By swiftly ratifying the USMCA, the lives of workers both at home and abroad can be improved. While the U.S. already has some of the strongest worker protections in the world, the USMCA makes these strong protections a North American standard.

USMCA push this summer

Matthew Kazin, 6-16, 19, https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/trump-admin-hopes-to-move-usmca-legislation-to-congress-this-summer, Trump admin hopes to move USMCA legislation to Congress this summer

White House trade adviser Peter Navarro said on Sunday that the administration is hoping to lay the groundwork for congressional approval of the new trade agreement Opens a New Window. with its North American neighbors this summer. “We’re hoping to get implementing legislation onto the floor of the House and the Senate this summer. That’s what we’re targeting,” Navarro told “Sunday Morning Futures,” adding that he believes the deal will pass. MORE FROM FOXBUSINESS.COM… DOJ, MAJOR BANKS MEET TO ADDRESS ELDER FINANCIAL ABUSE Opens a New Window. EL MONTEREY BREAKFAST WRAPS RECALLED BECAUSE THEY MAY CONTAIN SMALL ROCKS Opens a New Window. BABE RUTH JERSEY SELLS FOR RECORD $5.64M AT AUCTION Opens a New Window. The future of the trade pact, called the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, was put in jeopardy this month due to President Trump’s Opens a New Window. threat of imposing tariffs on imported Mexican goods in an effort to get the country to control the flow of migrants into the U.S. However, the president ultimately suspended implementation of the tariffs after he said Mexico agreed to “take strong measures to stem the tide of migration” to the border with the U.S. “I am pleased to inform you that The United States of America has reached a signed agreement with Mexico,” Trump tweeted on June 7. “The Tariffs scheduled to be implemented by the U.S. on Monday, against Mexico, are hereby indefinitely suspended.” Donald J. Trump ✔ @realDonaldTrump I am pleased to inform you that The United States of America has reached a signed agreement with Mexico. The Tariffs scheduled to be implemented by the U.S. on Monday, against Mexico, are hereby indefinitely suspended. Mexico, in turn, has agreed to take strong measures to…. 240K 7:31 PM – Jun 7, 2019 Twitter Ads info and privacy 87.4K people are talking about this Preparent® Carrier Test Opens a New Window. GENETIC SCREENING OPENS A NEW WINDOW. Sponsored By Preparent® Carrier Test Help her prepare before she’s pregnant. Find out your patient’s genetic carrier status. Please wait Trump added, in a separate tweet, that Mexico agreed to buy “large quantities” of agricultural products from U.S. farmers. Donald J. Trump ✔ @realDonaldTrum

USMCA push this summer

Matthew Kazin, 6-16, 19, https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/trump-admin-hopes-to-move-usmca-legislation-to-congress-this-summer, Trump admin hopes to move USMCA legislation to Congress this summer

White House trade adviser Peter Navarro said on Sunday that the administration is hoping to lay the groundwork for congressional approval of the new trade agreement Opens a New Window. with its North American neighbors this summer. “We’re hoping to get implementing legislation onto the floor of the House and the Senate this summer. That’s what we’re targeting,” Navarro told “Sunday Morning Futures,” adding that he believes the deal will pass. MORE FROM FOXBUSINESS.COM… DOJ, MAJOR BANKS MEET TO ADDRESS ELDER FINANCIAL ABUSE Opens a New Window. EL MONTEREY BREAKFAST WRAPS RECALLED BECAUSE THEY MAY CONTAIN SMALL ROCKS Opens a New Window. BABE RUTH JERSEY SELLS FOR RECORD $5.64M AT AUCTION Opens a New Window. The future of the trade pact, called the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, was put in jeopardy this month due to President Trump’s Opens a New Window. threat of imposing tariffs on imported Mexican goods in an effort to get the country to control the flow of migrants into the U.S. However, the president ultimately suspended implementation of the tariffs after he said Mexico agreed to “take strong measures to stem the tide of migration” to the border with the U.S. “I am pleased to inform you that The United States of America has reached a signed agreement with Mexico,” Trump tweeted on June 7. “The Tariffs scheduled to be implemented by the U.S. on Monday, against Mexico, are hereby indefinitely suspended.” Donald J. Trump ✔ @realDonaldTrump I am pleased to inform you that The United States of America has reached a signed agreement with Mexico. The Tariffs scheduled to be implemented by the U.S. on Monday, against Mexico, are hereby indefinitely suspended. Mexico, in turn, has agreed to take strong measures to…. 240K 7:31 PM – Jun 7, 2019 Twitter Ads info and privacy 87.4K people are talking about this Preparent® Carrier Test Opens a New Window. GENETIC SCREENING OPENS A NEW WINDOW. Sponsored By Preparent® Carrier Test Help her prepare before she’s pregnant. Find out your patient’s genetic carrier status. Please wait Trump added, in a separate tweet, that Mexico agreed to buy “large quantities” of agricultural products from U.S. farmers. Donald J. Trump ✔ @realDonaldTrum

Despite opposition, there is enough support to pass USMCA

Anna Edgerton,, 6-10, 19, http://fortune.com/2019/06/10/usmca-trade-deal-mexico-tariffs/, Democrats Hold Out on USMCA as Trump Walks Back Mexico Tariffs

Even as Trump retains some bipartisan support for taking a hard stance against Chinese trade practices, few lawmakers wanted him to rip up the accord with Mexico and Canada without a replacement. The USMCA came together after more than a year of painstaking negotiations. Senator Thom Tillis, a North Carolina Republican who’s up for re-election in 2020, said he has “no doubt’’ there’s enough support in the Senate to ratify the agreement. With help from pro-trade Republicans, Tillis said Sunday on Fox, the Democratic-led House should be able to pass it as well.

Pelosi will support it and get it through

Pam Johnson, 6-10, 19, Pam Johnson is a sixth-generation Iowa farmer, growing corn and soybeans on a family farm with her husband, two sons and their families. Johnson is a member of the Global Farmer Network. She served as an agricultural adviser to Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign. Johnson also previously served as president of the National Corn Growers Association and president of Maizall, the international corn growers alliance, https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/448472-approve-usmca-before-its-too-late, Approve USMCA Before It’s Too Late

lthough some members in the House of Representatives are skeptical of USMCA, Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) has signaled that she thinks she can navigate the deal through her chamber: “I can get to yes,” she told a colleague, according to the New York Times. House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.), echoed Pelosi in an interview with Bloomberg: “We are trying to get to yes.”

Summer is key, after August it is too late

Anna Edgerton,, 6-10, 19, http://fortune.com/2019/06/10/usmca-trade-deal-mexico-tariffs/, Democrats Hold Out on USMCA as Trump Walks Back Mexico Tariffs

The 2020 presidential race also squeezes the timing for a vote on the bill to implement the USMCA. Lawmakers of both parties have warned that passing such a deal will be politically tricky in an election year. That means the best chance for a vote would be before Congress recesses in August to avoid typical end-of-the-year budget fights, according to North Carolina Representative Mark Meadows, a close Trump ally.

Note enough Democratic votes for MCA now

Anna Edgerton,, 6-10, 19, http://fortune.com/2019/06/10/usmca-trade-deal-mexico-tariffs/, Democrats Hold Out on USMCA as Trump Walks Back Mexico Tariffs

“We’re not ready,’’ Representative Debbie Dingell, a Michigan Democrat, said Sunday on Fox News. “The votes in the House are not there yet until these changes take place.’’ During last week’s uncertainty over trade with Mexico, most Democrats publicly separated USMCA deliberations from Trump’s tariff plan, which means that removing the tariff threat doesn’t necessarily clear the way for a new deal to replace the North American Free Trade Agreement. Dingell said she wants changes to the agreement’s labor, environmental and enforcement provisions that would satisfy her skeptical colleagues.

USMCA key to patent rights and the economy

Raymond Kerins,6-12, 19, Mexco Tarrifs averted, agreement back in the bulls eye, https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/mexico-tariffs-usmca-trade

Congress will soon decide whether to ratify the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, the trade Opens a New Window. deal that would update NAFTA in several ways. Most importantly, the new pact would significantly strengthen intellectual property Opens a New Window. rights. It’s hard to overstate the value of IP rights to America’s economy. The U.S. Patent and Trademark Office reports that IP-intensive industries account for 45.5 million U.S. jobs and more than $6 trillion in GDP. MORE FROM FOXBUSINESS.COM TRUMP LIFTS YEAR-ROUND ETHANOL RESTRICTIONS, COULD LOWER GAS PRICES Opens a New Window. BUSINESSES SHOWING DISCONTENT WITH TRUMP’S TRADE POLICIES Opens a New Window. Without strong IP rights, the industries that enhance our lives would cease to function. Congress can set the stage for years of job creation and economic growth by ratifying the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). Innovation isn’t cheap or easy. This is especially true in my industry of biopharmaceuticals. It costs an average of $2.6 billion and often takes more than a decade to develop just one new medicine. Hilton Hotels and Resorts Opens a New Window. EXPECT BETTER AT HILTON OPENS A NEW WINDOW. Sponsored By Hilton Hotels And Resorts Time is Money. Book at Hilton and save both. Please wait By patenting their drug designs, biopharmaceutical firms can prevent rivals from creating knockoff medicines for a limited time. That enables innovative firms to earn a return on investment and plow the revenues into new lines of research, leading to yet more innovation. Today, the biopharmaceutical sector supports 4.7 million American jobs and contributes more than $1.3 trillion a year to the economy — none of which would be possible without our nation’s strong IP protections. Other IP-intensive sectors have similarly impressive statistics. Copyright industries support 5.7 million jobs, while the tech industry employs 6.7 million. Importantly, these creative industries produce the majority of American exports, which help reduce the trade deficit. These sectors account for about $840 billion in merchandise exports and another $80 billion in service exports annually. The USMCA contains numerous intellectual property provisions. For instance, the deal would create a Committee on Intellectual Property Rights. Representatives from each country would work together to boost enforcement of IP rights and improve transparency in issues concerning trade secrets. That’s a necessary reform to prevent IP theft. By one estimate, the sale of counterfeit American goods costs our economy $29 billion a year. Stolen trade secrets, meanwhile, cost businesses and workers $180 billion. The USMCA also includes critical protections for sophisticated drugs known as “biologics,” which represent some of the most promising cures of the future. Policies like these will preserve the incentive for American individuals and companies to innovate and protect them from IP theft. American, Canadian, and Mexican leaders already finalized the terms of the USMCA back in November, but Congress hasn’t yet approved the deal. There’s little reason to wait. CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX BUSINESS APP Opens a New Window. The USMCA would give the nation’s most innovative and creative industries the security they need to create jobs and grow our economy. Passing it is a no-brainer

Trump 2020 election will be immigration all the time, hardline popular

David Smith, 6-13, 19, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/jun/13/trump-2020-re-election-campaign-plan-strategy, Can lightning strike twice? Trump set to launch 2020 campaign

Once a blur on the horizon, the outlines of his next campaign are coming into sharp focus. He has laid out his strategy for re-election in his tweets, his interviews, his speeches and his presidency thus far. It will probably be a rerun of 2016, throwing red meat to red states in a series of high-octane rallies and Fox News interviews that lean in to America’s toxic tribalism. Most conventionally, Trump and his allies will tout the economy. Trump seldom misses an opportunity to talk about stock market highs, growth topping 3% or unemployment hitting the lowest rate in half a century. The White House relishes recycling old comments from Democrat Nancy Pelosi likening Trump’s tax cuts to “Armageddon” or economist Paul Krugman’s prophecy of “global recession, with no end in sight”. Ronna McDaniel, current chair of the RNC, told Fox News in May: “The case is gonna be the economy, economy, economy, period.” Michael Steele: ‘It’s going to be playing to his nationalistic tendencies because he’s an autocrat at heart and that’s the space he knows and occupies.’ Facebook Twitter Pinterest Michael Steele: ‘It’s going to be playing to his nationalistic tendencies because he’s an autocrat at heart and that’s the space he knows and occupies.’ Photograph: Alex Wong/Getty Images Advertisement Trump’s speechwriters are also likely to trumpet his two supreme court appointments, bipartisan criminal justice reform and an “America first” approach to foreign policy that he claims defeated Islamic State and brought the North Korean dictator, Kim Jong-un, to the negotiating table. But in the 2018 midterms, Trump tended to veer off teleprompter and trample on his own message. He talked less conspicuously about the economy than immigration, whipping up fear of caravans from Central America pouring over the border. The nativist message, with its naked appeals to white nationalism at rallies resounding to chants of “Build the wall!”, seems certain to loom large again. Once again, critics say, Trump will adopt the politics of divide and rule, riling up his base rather than broadening his coalition. “It’s going to be immigration all the time, scaring people about those brown folks coming across the border,” Steele said. “It’s going to be playing to his nationalistic tendencies because he’s an autocrat at heart and that’s the space he knows and occupies. And he’s reinforced now by an attorney general who also believes apparently in the autocracy of an untouchable president. “So Trump, having been reinforced from a legal perspective, feels that he probably can go out there and keep swinging at the fences on these very delicate issues like immigration, which are tinged with race and xenophobia, and then in between throw in, ‘Yeah, the economy is doing great’. Because the truth of that, as I think the numbers have borne out, is while the economy is strong and GDP is great, most people aren’t necessarily realising the benefit.” Progressive groups are braced for the onslaught. Maurice Weeks, co-executive director of the Action Center on Race and the Economy, said: “I expect a lot more talk about the wall. I expect a lot more talk about Muslims. I expect a lot more outwardly racist, sexist and homophobic things and that really won’t be a break from anything that’s happened since before he was elected up until now. I think that he’s just going to keep hammering on these things that have maintained his level of support at this scarily high level.” Weeks added: “He’s never said this meme that we’ve heard from presidents, like after you get elected you’re going to reach across and heal the nation by bringing them together. That’s just not his game.”

PAUL STAR, MAY 2019 ISSUE, The Atlantic, It’s more likely than most people think—and compared with his first term, its effects would be far more durable, https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/05/trump-2020-second-term/585994/

The 2020 election will also determine whether the U.S. continues on a course that all but guarantees another kind of runaway global change—a stepped-up arms race, and with it a heightened risk of nuclear accidents and nuclear war. Trump’s “America first” doctrine, attacks on America’s alliances, and unilateral withdrawal from arms-control treaties have made the world far more dangerous. After pulling the United States out of the Iran nuclear agreement (in so doing, badly damaging America’s reputation as both an ally and a negotiating partner), Trump failed to secure from North Korea anything approaching the Iran deal’s terms, leaving Kim Jong Un not only unchecked but with increased international standing. Many world leaders are hoping that Trump’s presidency is a blip—that he will lose in 2020, and that his successor will renew America’s commitments to its allies and to the principles of multilateralism and nonproliferation. If he is reelected, however, several countries may opt to pursue nuclear weapons, especially those in regions that have relied on American security guarantees, such as the Middle East and Northeast Asia.CONTINUES. The prospect of a new nuclear arms race is suddenly very real. With the end of verifiable limits on American and Russian nuclear weapons, both countries will lose the right to inspect each other’s arsenal, and will face greater uncertainty about each other’s capabilities and intentions. Already, rhetoric has taken an ominous turn: After Trump suspended U.S. participation in the INF Treaty on February 2, Vladimir Putin quickly followed suit and promised a “symmetrical response” to new American weapons. Trump replied a few days later in his State of the Union address, threatening to “outspend and out-innovate all others by far” in weapons development… The treaties signed by the United States and Russia beginning in the 1980s have resulted in the elimination of nearly 90 percent of their nuclear weapons; the end of the Cold War seemed to confirm that those weapons had limited military utility. Now—as the U.S. and Russia abandon their commitment to arms control, and Trump’s “America first” approach causes countries such as Japan and Saudi Arabia to question the durability of U.S. security guarantees—the stage is being set for more states to go nuclear and for the U.S. and Russia to ramp up weapons development. This breathtaking historical reversal would, like global warming, likely feed on itself, becoming more and more difficult to undo.

Trump reelection will crush the NPT

PAUL STAR, MAY 2019 ISSUE, The Atlantic, It’s more likely than most people think—and compared with his first term, its effects would be far more durable, https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/05/trump-2020-second-term/585994/

At stake is the global nonproliferation regime that the United States and other countries have maintained over the past several decades to persuade nonnuclear powers to stay that way. That this regime has largely succeeded is a tribute to a combination of tactics, including U.S. bilateral and alliance-based defense commitments to nonnuclear countries, punishments and incentives, and pledges by the U.S. and Russia—as the world’s leading nuclear powers—to make dramatic cuts to their own arsenals.

In his first term, Trump has begun to undermine the nonproliferation regime and dismantle the remaining arms-control treaties between Washington and Moscow. In October, he announced that the U.S. would withdraw from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty signed in 1987 by Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev. While the Russian violations of the treaty that Trump cited are inexcusable, he has made no effort to hold Russia to its obligations—to the contrary, by destroying the treaty, he has let Russia off the hook. What’s more, he has displayed no interest in extending New START, which since 2011 has limited the strategic nuclear arsenals of Russia and the United States. If the treaty is alloed to expire, 2021 will mark the first year since 1972 without a legally binding agreement in place to control and reduce the deadliest arsenals ever created.

Climate, arms race, and Court impacts irreversible if Trump wins in 2020

PAUL STAR, MAY 2019 ISSUE, The Atlantic, It’s more likely than most people think—and compared with his first term, its effects would be far more durable, https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/05/trump-2020-second-term/585994/

In normal poliics, the policies adopted by a president and Congress may zig one way, and those of the next president and Congress may zag the other. The contending parties take our system’s rules as a given, and fight over what they understand to be reversible policies and power arrangements. But some situations are not like that; a zig one way makes it hard to zag back. This is one of those moments. After four years as president, Trump will have made at least two Supreme Court appointments, signed into law tax cuts, and rolled back federal regulation of the environment and the economy. Whatever you think of these actions, many of them can probably be offset or entirely undone in the future. The effects of a full eight years of Trump will be much more difficult, if not impossible, to undo. Three areas—climate change, the risk of a renewed global arms race, and control of the Supreme Court—illustrate the historic significance of the 2020 election. The first two problems will become much harder to address as time goes on. The third one stands to remake our constitutional democracy and undermine the capacity for future change.

Trump 2020 win makes court changes irreversible, including loss of abortion rights

PAUL STAR, MAY 2019 ISSUE, The Atlantic, It’s more likely than most people think—and compared with his first term, its effects would be far more durable, https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/05/trump-2020-second-term/585994/

Finally, a second term for Trump would entrench changes at home, perhaps the most durable of which involves the Supreme Court. With a full eight years, he would probably have the opportunity to replace two more justices: Ruth Bader Ginsburg will be 87 at the beginning of the next presidential term, and Stephen Breyer will be 82. Whether you regard the prospect of four Trump-appointed justices as a good or a bad thing will depend on your politics and preferences—but there is no denying that the impact on the nation’s highest court would be momentous. Not since Richard Nixon has a president named four new Supreme Court justices, and not since Franklin D. Roosevelt has one had the opportunity to alter the Court’s ideological balance so decisively. In Nixon’s time, conservatives did not approach court vacancies with a clear conception of their judicial objectives or with carefully vetted candidates; both Nixon and Gerald Ford appointed justices who ended up on the Court’s liberal wing. Since then, however, the conservative movement has built a formidable legal network designed to ensure that future judicial vacancies would not be squandered. The justices nominated by recent Republican presidents reflect this shift. But because the Court’s conservative majorities have remained slim, a series of Republican appointees—Sandra Day O’Connor, Anthony Kennedy, and most recently John Roberts—have, by occasionally breaking ranks, held the Court back from a full-scale reversal of liberal principles and precedents. With a 7–2 rather than a 5–4 majority, however, the Court’s conservatives could no longer be checked by a lone swing vote. Much of the public discussion about the Court’s future focuses on Roe v. Wade and other decisions expanding rights, protecting free speech, or mandating separation of Church and state. Much less public attention has been paid to conservative activists’ interest in reversing precedents that since the New Deal era have enabled the federal government to regulate labor and the economy. In the late 19th and early 20th centuries, conservative justices regularly struck down laws and regulations such as limits on work hours. Only in 1937, after ruling major New Deal programs unconstitutional, did the Court uphold a state minimum-wage law. In the decades that followed, the Court invoked the Constitution’s commerce clause, which authorizes Congress to regulate interstate commerce, as the basis for upholding laws regulating virtually any activity affecting the economy. A great deal of federal law, from labor standards to the Civil Rights Act of 1964 to health and environmental regulation, rests on that foundation. But the Court’s conservative majority has recently been chipping away at the expansive interpretation of the commerce clause, and some jurists on the right want to return to the pre-1937 era, thereby sharply limiting the government’s regulatory powers. In 2012, the Court’s five conservative justices held that the Affordable Care Act’s penalty for failing to obtain insurance—the so-called individual mandate—was not justified by the commerce clause. In a sweeping dissent from the majority’s opinion, four of those justices voted to strike down the entire ACA for that reason. The law survived only because the fifth conservative, Chief Justice Roberts, held that the mandate was a constitutional exercise of the government’s taxing power. If the Court had included seven conservative justices in 2012, it would almost certainly have declared the ACA null and void. This is the fate awaiting much existing social and economic legislation and regulation if Trump is reelected. And that’s to say nothing of future legislation such as measures to limit climate change, which might well be struck down by a Court adhering to an originalist interpretation of our 18th-century Constitution. Democracy is always a gamble, but ordinarily the stakes involve short-term wins and losses. Much more hangs in the balance next year.

Trump victory in 2020 kills everyone

PAUL STAR, MAY 2019 ISSUE, The Atlantic, It’s more likely than most people think—and compared with his first term, its effects would be far more durable, https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/05/trump-2020-second-term/585994/

With a second term, Trump’s presidency would go from an aberration to a turning point in American history. But it would not usher in an era marked by stability. The effects of climate change and the risks associated with another nuclear arms race are bound to be convulsive. And Trump’s reelection would leave the country contending with both dangers under the worst possible conditions, deeply alienated from friends abroad and deeply divided at home. The Supreme Court, furthermore, would be far out of line with public opinion and at the center of political conflict, much as the Court was in the 1930s before it relented on the key policies of the New Deal. The choice Americans face in 2020 is one we will not get to make again. What remains to be seen is whether voters will grasp the stakes before them. In 2016, Hillary Clinton’s emails absorbed more media and public attention than any other issue. In 2018, Trump tried to focus attention on a ragtag caravan of a few thousand Central Americans approaching the southern border. That effort failed, but the master of distraction will be back at it next year. If we cannot focus on what matters, we may sleepwalk into a truly perilous future.

Warming is irreversible if Trump wins in 2020

PAUL STAR, MAY 2019 ISSUE, The Atlantic, It’s more likely than most people think—and compared with his first term, its effects would be far more durable, https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/05/trump-2020-second-term/585994/
In short, the bi

ggest difference between electing Trump in 2016 and reelecting Trump in 2020 would be irreversibility. Climate policy is now the most obvious example. For a long time, even many of the people who acknowledged the reality of climate change thought of it as a slow process that did not demand immediate action. But today, amid extreme weather events and worsening scientific forecasts, the costs of our delay are clearly mounting, as are the associated dangers. To have a chance at keeping global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius—the objective of the Paris climate agreement—the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says that by 2030, CO2 emissions must drop some 45 percent from 2010 levels. Instead of declining, however, they are rising.

In his first term, Trump has announced plans to cancel existing climate reforms, such as higher fuel-efficiency standards and limits on emissions from new coal-fired power plants, and he has pledged to pull the United States out of the Paris Agreement. His reelection would put off a national commitment to decarbonization until at least the second half of the 2020s, while encouraging other countries to do nothing as well. And change that is delayed becomes more economically and politically difficult. According to the Global Carbon Project, if decarbonization had begun globally in 2000, an emissions reduction of about 2 percent a year would have been sufficient to stay below 2 degrees Celsius of warming. Now it will need to be approximately 5 percent a year. If we wait another decade, it will be about 9 percent. In the United States, the economic disruption and popular resistance sure to arise from such an abrupt transition may be more than our political system can bear. No one knows, moreover, when the world might hit irreversible tipping points such as the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, which would likely doom us to a catastrophic sea-level rise.

Arms Race & War

Biden way ahead of Trump now

Dana Blanton, 6-10, 19, https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-democrats-want-a-steady-leader-biden-leads-trump-by-10-points

Former Vice President Joe Biden is still, by far, the leader in the Democratic Party’s presidential nomination race. His lead reflects the mood of the party, as Democratic primary voters want someone who will unite Americans, provide steady leadership, and who has high ethical standards. In addition, while Democrats best President Trump in hypothetical matchups and keep his support at 41 percent or lower, none of the challengers hits 50 percent. These are some of the findings from the latest Fox News Poll. Biden tops the list of Democratic contenders with 32 percent support among primary voters. Bernie Sanders trails at 13 percent, Elizabeth Warren at 9 percent, and Pete Buttigieg and Kamala Harris both at 8 percent. Next is Beto O’Rourke at 4 percent, Cory Booker at 3 percent, and Amy Klobuchar and Andrew Yang each garner 2 percent. Julian Castro, John Delaney, Tulsi Gabbard, Kirsten Gillibrand, and Tim Ryan receive 1 percent a piece. CLICK HERE TO READ THE POLL RESULTS Since March, Sanders is down 10 points, while Buttigieg (+7), Warren (+5), and Biden (+1) have gained ground. Biden comes in first (by wide margins) and Sanders comes in second among men, women, whites, and non-whites. Among primary voters 45 years and over, Biden leads by over 30 points, while among those under age 45 he has only a 3-point edge. Self-described moderate Democrats give Biden a 29-point advantage, while he leads by a narrower 10 points among Democrats who identify as progressive. Overall, Democratic primary voters divide when choosing between a candidate with “high ethical standards” (52 percent) and one who can “defeat Donald Trump” (45 percent). By a 74-23 percent margin, they prioritize nominating a candidate who will “unite Americans around shared beliefs” over “fight against extreme right-wing beliefs.” They also prefer, by a 72-25 percent margin, their nominee provide “steady, reliable leadership” rather than “a bold, new agenda.” Those prioritizing steady leadership go big for Biden (37 percent) over Sanders (12 percent). Support spreads more evenly among those wanting a candidate with a bold agenda: Biden (21 percent), Sanders (17 percent), Warren and Buttigieg (12 percent each), and Harris (11 percent). Biden leads among those Democrats wanting a uniter (+20 points) and a fighter (+13), and he is the choice for both those preferring a candidate with high ethical standards (+12) and one who can beat Trump (+27). CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX NEWS APP “Some on the left mock Biden as naive for suggesting he can bring Americans together, but primary voters prefer his steady style and unifying approach,” says Democratic pollster Chris Anderson, who conducts the Fox New Poll with Republican Daron Shaw. “A big question is whether another candidate can provide a viable alternative for voters who like Biden’s approach, but aren’t enthused with his candidacy.” President Trump officially launches his reelection campaign June 18. More voters would be enthusiastic if Trump were to win reelection than felt that way in 2016 — and fewer would be scared. The share of those feeling enthusiastic is up 8 points since October 2016 overall and up 18 among Republicans. The number of voters feeling scared is down 16. Still, half would be displeased (20 percent) or scared (30 percent) if Trump is reelected. Trump trails the Democrat in each of the possible 2020 head-to-head matchups tested and never gets above 41 percent support. At the same time, none of the challengers hits 50 percent. Biden tops Trump by 10 points (49-39 percent) and Sanders is up by nine (49-40) — both of these leads are outside the poll’s margin of error. Warren has a two-point edge over Trump (43-41), and Harris (42-41) and Buttigieg (41-40) are up by one (within the margin of error).

Trump will lose the swing states this time

Chris Cizilla, 6-11, 19, https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/11/politics/2020-map-donald-trump/index.html, Here’s why Donald Trump needs to expand the 2020 map

But don’t let the Trump campaign’s spin fool you. This effort to stretch the 2020 map isn’t solely about a cash-flush campaign looking for places to spend money in search of opportunities. It’s a fundamentally defensive move, caused by the ahistorical Trump victories in typically Democratic states like Pennsylvania and Michigan combined with the incumbent’s faltering numbers in those same states. Trump was the first Republican to win Michigan and Pennsylvania at the presidential level since George H.W. Bush in 1988. And that wasn’t for a lack of trying by Republican presidential candidates who regularly targeted both states — but especially Pennsylvania — in each of the subsequent elections. And in both states, the 2018 midterm results suggested a snapping-back to that Democratic lineage. Democrats re-elected Sen. Debbie Stabenow in Michigan, made Democrat Gretchen Whitmer governor and won two House seats held by Republicans. In Pennsylvania, Gov Tom. Wolf (D) was easily re-elected and Democrats gained four previously-Republican-held House seats. Polling in both states also suggest that the tide has turned against Trump. In Gallup’s 2018 state-by-state polling, just 42% of residents in Michigan and Pennsylvania approved of the job Trump is doing while 54% in both states disapproved. While that’s not totally determinative of Trump’s chances of winning either state next November, it is the sort of thing that has to worry Trump’s top strategists.

Trump way ahead in fundraising and messaging

Maggie Servins, 6-16, 19, Dems prepare 9-figure ad onslaught to blunt Trump’s head start, Fox News

Some of the Democratic operatives most focused on Trump worry that by the time Democrats winnow their 23-person primary field to one, the president may have secured himself a hard-to-beat advantage if Democrats don’t successfully mount a sustained push against Trump in a swath of 2020 battleground states. There are already significant obstacles: The DNC has raised $27 million this year, less than half than the $62 million the Trump-fueled Republican National Committee has pulled in. “I take very seriously the fact that Republicans and Trump are already communicating under the radar to sets of voters they are already in threat of losing,” said David Pepper, chairman of the Ohio Democratic Party, who has been working to raise funds and counter the Trump campaign’s advertising online in his state. “If Trump has an entire year to be hitting these voters with all sorts of garbage, the mindset will be cemented in with a lot of voters by the time we find them.”

Polling is flawed

Perry Bacon, 6-14, 19, https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/should-we-take-these-early-general-election-polls-seriously-no/, Should We Take These Early General Election Polls Seriously? $#!% No!

n the runup to the 2016 presidential election, this same question came up, and FiveThirtyEight analyzed general election polls from 1944 to 2012 that tested the eventual nominees and were conducted in the last two months of the year before the election (so for 2012, that would be November and December of 2011). On average, these polls missed the final result by 11 percentage points.

It doesn’t matter if the plan is popular – Trump’s support has a ceiling

Perry Bacon, 6-14, 19, https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/should-we-take-these-early-general-election-polls-seriously-no/, Should We Take These Early General Election Polls Seriously? $#!% No!

First, the Republican Party under Trump has had a ceiling so far — and it’s south of 50 percent of American voters. The president won 46 percent of the vote in 2016. House Republicans won 45 percent of the national House vote in 2018. Trump’s approval rating for the past two years has been between 37 percent and 43 percent. I doubt that Trump will get just 42 percent of the national vote (and most other national polls pitting him against the Democratic candidates have him in the mid-40s). At the same time, it’s pretty hard right now to see Trump getting the majority of the electorate behind him.

Trump has a 50 50 chance of winning

PAUL STAR, MAY 2019 ISSUE, The Atlantic, It’s more likely than most people think—and compared with his first term, its effects would be far more durable, https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/05/trump-2020-second-term/585994/

Trump’s reelection seems implausible to many people, as implausible as his election did before November 2016. But despite the scandals and chaos of his presidency, and despite his party’s midterm losses, he approaches 2020 with two factors in his favor. One is incumbency: Since 1980, voters have only once denied an incumbent a second term. The other is a relatively strong economy (at least as of now). Alan Abramowitz, a political scientist at Emory University who weights both of those factors heavily in his election-forecasting model, gives Trump close to an even chance of reelection, based on a projected 2 percent GDP growth rate for the first half of 2020.

Trump has $ to win in the swing states

Maggie Servins, 6-16, 19, Dems prepare 9-figure ad onslaught to blunt Trump’s head start, Fox News

Which is, as far as it goes, true. At the end of March, Trump’s re-election campaign had already raisd $97 million and had a whopping $41 million in the bank. (Trump, unlike past presidents, began raising money for his re-election race shortly after first winning the White House in 2016.) What that sort of early fundraising means is that unlike his first race, in which he was heavily outspent by Clinton in almost every swing state, Trump will have the money to build top-tier organizations in every swing state and maybe even a few non-traditional swing states.

Trump trailing against all candidates and in swing states

Aaron Blake, 6-11, 19, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/06/11/more-brutal-poll-numbers-trump/?utm_term=.dbb812dfdfac, More brutal 2020 poll numbers for Trump

The New York Times just dropped a brutal story reporting that President Trump is instructing his aides to lie about his poor standing in internal polls. And a new poll just made their job much more difficult. Quinnipiac University has for the first time conducted national head-to-head polls matching up Trump and some of the leading Democratic presidential hopefuls. None of the matchups is good for Trump. Trump trails all six by between five and 13 points, with Joe Biden holding the biggest advantage and the lesser-known candidates — Sen. Cory Booker (N.J.) and Mayor Pete Buttigieg — holding the smallest leads. The findings mirror the limited head-to-head polling we’ve seen in some key early states, with Trump trailing by as much as double digits in crucial Michigan and Pennsylvania, and even trailing Biden in Texas (!) in another Quinnipiac poll. Trump also trails in most national head-to-heads, although often not by as much as Quinnipiac indicates. But these polls are beginning to paint a pretty unified picture of Trump’s current political standing as the 2020 race lurches to a start, and it’s decidedly not a strong one. And if there’s one thing the last two years have shown us, it’s that Trump’s political standing hasn’t changed much. The Times reports this has begun to register with Trump, so much that he has instructed aides to pretend the polls don’t say what they do: After being briefed on a devastating 17-state poll conducted by his campaign pollster, Tony Fabrizio, Mr. Trump told aides to deny that his internal polling showed him trailing Mr. Biden in many of the states he needs to win, even though he is also trailing in public polls from key states like Texas, Michigan and Pennsylvania. And when top-line details of the polling leaked, including numbers showing the president lagging in a cluster of critical Rust Belt states, Mr. Trump instructed aides to say publicly that other data showed him doing well.

Trump dominates Facebook

Thomas Kaplan, 5-21, 19, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/05/21/us/politics/trump-2020-facebook-ads.html

President Trump’s re-election campaign has spent far more than any single Democratic presidential candidate on Facebook advertising, reprising a strategy that was central to his 2016 victory.

Pelosi not committed to trying to deal with Saudi Arabia in the NDAA

Tara Golshan, 6-4, 19, https://www.vox.com/2019/6/4/18650576/ndaa-trump-saudi-arabia-yemen-progressives, Progressives want the must-pass defense budget to tie Trump’s hands with Saudi Arabia

House speaker Nancy Pelosi’s office has said the war in Yemen remains a top priority, but it’s less clear what House Democrats’ strategy will be. Her office did not respond for comment on using the National Defense Authorization Act as a vehicle to act on Yemen. “We continue to consider all viable options to end this humanitarian crisis,” Pelosi’s spokesperson said previously. Khanna, who sits on the House Armed Services Committee, said progressives will be leading the charge on the NDAA process.

No infrastructure deal

Jacob Pramuk, 6-12, 19, https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/12/mulvaney-says-infrastructure-dead-but-trump-pelosi-can-work-together.html, https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/12/mulvaney-says-infrastructure-dead-but-trump-pelosi-can-work-together.html

White House acting chief of staff Mick Mulvaney thinks efforts to strike an infrastructure deal with congressional Democrats are probably “done” after talks blew up last month. Still, he said Tuesday that President Donald Trump and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will have to cooperate on pressing issues in the coming months — from passing a budget to approving trade agreements. “But we will have to work with them on the spending matter. So there’s a bunch of stuff we’ll do. It’s just the infrastructure,” Mulvaney told CNBC’s Eamon Javers at the Peter G. Peterson Foundation Fiscal Summit.

Pelosi won’t support the Mexico deal

Jacob Pramuk, 6-12, 19, https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/12/mulvaney-says-infrastructure-dead-but-trump-pelosi-can-work-together.html, https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/12/mulvaney-says-infrastructure-dead-but-trump-pelosi-can-work-together.html

The White House official also said, “We’re trying to work with” Democrats on passing the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or USMCA. Pelosi and members of her caucus have showed skepticism about ratifying Trump’s replacement for NAFTA amid concerns about how it would affect labor and environmental protections, as well as pharmaceutical prices.

Pelosi won’t work with Trump

Jacob Pramuk, 6-12, 19, https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/12/mulvaney-says-infrastructure-dead-but-trump-pelosi-can-work-together.html, https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/12/mulvaney-says-infrastructure-dead-but-trump-pelosi-can-work-together.html

Pelosi, meanwhile, has tried to balance a desire to investigate alleged misconduct in the Trump administration and the president’s efforts to influence special counsel Robert Mueller’s Russia investigation without sparking political backlash by pushing for Trump’s impeachment. After reports that the speaker privately said she wanted to see the president in prison, Trump last week called Pelosi “nasty” and “vindictive.” At the Peterson Foundation summit earlier Tuesday, Pelosi said she was “done” with talking about Trump because he tries to shift attention away from more important issues.

No progress on raising the borrowing limit

Jacob Pramuk, 6-12, 19, https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/12/mulvaney-says-infrastructure-dead-but-trump-pelosi-can-work-together.html, https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/12/mulvaney-says-infrastructure-dead-but-trump-pelosi-can-work-together.html

Trump and Congress have several high-stakes issues to hash out in the coming months. Top Republicans and Democrats in Congress have so far struggled to make progress to raise the U.S. borrowing limit. The Treasury Department could run out of money to pay its bills by the end of the summer if Congress fails to lift the debt ceiling.

Mexico agreement a top political priority for Trump

Jacob Pramuk, 6-12, 19, https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/12/mulvaney-says-infrastructure-dead-but-trump-pelosi-can-work-together.html, https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/12/mulvaney-says-infrastructure-dead-but-trump-pelosi-can-work-together.html

Lawmakers will have to pass a spending plan by the end of September to avoid a government shutdown. In addition, the White House hopes lawmakers can ratify the USMCA in the coming months. Passing the trade agreement is a top economic and political priority for Trump.

Congress only got enough votes to override a Presidential veto of a resolution to stop an arms sales deal once

Jennifer Spindel is an assistant professor of international security at the University of Oklahoma and the associate director of the Cyber Governance and Policy Center, 6-7, 19, Jennifer Spindel is an assistant professor of international security at the University of Oklahoma and the associate director of the Cyber Governance and Policy Center. Follow her on Twitter @jsspindel, Yes, Trump can override Congress and sell weapons to Saudi Arabia — even over Republican objections

Because the law prevents senators from filibustering the disapproval resolution, the Senate can adopt it by a simple majority vote. But the law also allows the president to veto the resolution. To block an arms sale, congressional opponents need a two-thirds majority in both chambers to override a president’s veto. Members of Congress have tried in the past to pass objections to proposed arms sales. That succeeded only once, in 1986, when a Republican Senate and a Democratic House voted to block the proposed sale of Sidewinder, Harpoon and Stinger missiles to Saudi Arabia. Although President Ronald Reagan vetoed the resolution, congressional opposition led the administration to alter the deal. Saudi Arabia ultimately received only Sidewinder and Harpoon missiles. Other congressional attempts to block arms sales proposed by the president have failed.

Doesn’t matter if there is popular support for the Mexico deal, Pelosi won’t bring it to a vote

Jacob Pramuk, 6-12, 19, https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/12/mulvaney-says-infrastructure-dead-but-trump-pelosi-can-work-together.html, https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/12/mulvaney-says-infrastructure-dead-but-trump-pelosi-can-work-together.html

Mulvaney said Tuesday that he believes the trade deal will pass in both the House and Senate. But he questioned whether Pelosi would bring it to a vote.

Saudi arms sales vote irrelevant – Congress can’t necessarily even call a vote and they are nowhere close to overriding Trump’s veto

Rebecca Kheel, 6-9, 19, https://thehill.com/policy/defense/447503-senators-take-bipartisan-step-toward-blocking-trumps-saudi-arms-sales, Senators take bipartisan step toward blocking Trump’s Saudi arms sales

Fueled by the same concerns factoring in now, a March resolution to end U.S. military support for the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen passed the Senate in a 54-46 vote. Still, efforts to block the sales face several hurdles on Capitol Hill. For one, it is unclear whether senators will be able to force votes on their resolutions. Under normal procedures, the Arms Export Control Act says a resolution of disapproval is privileged, meaning senators can force a vote on it. But lawmakers have never tried to pass a resolution of disapproval after a president has invoked the emergency provision. Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.), the ranking member on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said Wednesday that he and other sponsors believe they can force a vote on their resolutions. They are in conversations with the Senate parliamentarian to see if that’s the case. A Senate staffer told The Hill on Friday that a ruling from the parliamentarian likely won’t come until the measures are called up on the chamber floor. If the parliamentarian rules in their favor, supporters will need a simple majority to send the resolutions to the Democratic-controlled House. They would later need at least 67 votes to override Trump’s likely veto. Republicans hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate. “We’ve already got three Republicans as co-sponsors. There’s one more who’s considering it. That would give us 51 votes,” Menendez said. “Veto-proof, that’s another story.” Murphy argued that opposition to the arms sales is growing because Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman “going off the rails is now hard for the Saudis to disguise.” “So, we’ll see,” Murphy said on Republican support for the resolutions of disapproval. “Sen. [Marco] Rubio [R-Fla.] has made clear his distaste for the Saudi regime. Will he join he join us in supporting the resolution? If people like Sen. Rubio join us, then all of a sudden, we’re getting close to 67 votes.” Rubio would not say how he would vote on the resolutions, adding that he hasn’t read all 22 of them. But he said that in general he does not support the arms sales. “Even though I may support the sale of defensive weaponry, I don’t support the administration going around the existent congressional review process and the prerogatives that have always been respected when it comes to the chairman and the ranking member” of the Foreign Relations Committee, he said.

Arms sales deals won’t receive a vote

Kaorun Demirjian, 6-14, 19, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/as-fears-of-war-loom-trumps-iran-policy-arms-deals-face-challenges-in-congress/2019/06/14/a292b068-8ed3-11e9-adf3-f70f78c156e8_story.html?utm_term=.255497a76baf, As fears of war loom, Trump’s Iran policy, arms deals face challenges in Congress

s soon as Tuesday, senators could maneuver to block up to 22 arms deals, most of them benefiting Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, that the administration last month invoked emergency authority to complete, over congressional objections. It is unlikely, however, that all 22 disapproval resolutions will receive a vote on the floor — not least because another potential vehicle for thwarting the move is due for consideration.