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China using growing economic power to advance an aggressive international agenda

Swift, 2019, DMIRAL SCOTT H. SWIFT, UNITED STATES NAVY (RET.) Commander, US Pacific Fleet (2015–2018) Robert E. Wilhelm Fellow, MIT Center for International Studies Ward, Jonathan D. T.. China’s Vision of Victory . The Atlas Publishing and Media Company. Kindle Edition.

This is an important undertaking. To understand China you have to take a multi-dimensional approach, as Jonathan has done. China’s strategy is a global grand strategy— dynamic, multifaceted, and utilizing all elements of the nation’s government and society. To truly understand China, you have to look at its strategic intentions in all of its parts, as Jonathan has done. The author notes that China has leveraged its “economic empowerment through engagement with the United States,” and China “is now returning to the original ideological intentions of the Chinese Communist Party.” I could not agree more. The Chinese have not obscured or hidden their intentions. They have communicated clearly to their citizens their near- and long-term political objectives and their grand strategy for getting there. As Jonathan points out, when Henry Kissinger first visited Beijing, he described China as a “mysterious” country. Through our own shortcomings, we have unnecessarily “mystified” this grand plan. Our lack of knowledge and understanding explains why America thought the best approach for our emerging relationship with China was “engage but hedge.” Now, not only are we as Americans beginning to grasp the true nature of China’s plans, but the world is as well. China’s grand strategy plays to its advantages and is derived from a vision of its intended relationship with the world. From that grand strategy China has developed regional strategies to guide its actions in every corner of the world. China has developed military bases on man-made islands in the South China Sea, engineering marvels emblematic of the success of the implementation of Chinese grand strategic outcomes and its resultant transition from a “mysterious” country to one overtly assuming a commanding position on the global stage. More broadly, and of even greater concern, China has long pursued a strategy of exploiting the international rules-based order when those rules provide Chinese advantage, while also using economic and military coercion, corruption, intimidation, bullying, and outright force when convenient to achieve national objectives. China’s success demonstrates the value of a true grand strategy applied effectively and efficiently. China has done this methodically, with frequent updates based upon changing world conditions, as well as China’s assessments of its own ability to advance toward its goals. It has also telegraphed its broad strategic intent, if not its specific objectives. Granted, it has presented goals in much clearer terms to its internal audience than to the international community, but, as Jonathan points out, this is not new and not beyond the view of a careful eye on Chinese discourse. Ward, Jonathan D. T.. China’s Vision of Victory . The Atlas Publishing and Media Company. Kindle Edition.

China undermining the rules based global order

Swift, 2019, DMIRAL SCOTT H. SWIFT, UNITED STATES NAVY (RET.) Commander, US Pacific Fleet (2015–2018) Robert E. Wilhelm Fellow, MIT Center for International Studies Ward, Jonathan D. T.. China’s Vision of Victory . The Atlas Publishing and Media Company. Kindle Edition.

My view, reinforced throughout this book, is that the primary element of this competition is the divergent views of China and the rest of the world on the value of the international rules-based system designed to mitigate frictions that naturally occur between states. China is challenging the rules-based order in areas it views as impinging upon its national sovereignty. Competitive frictions are occurring globally as other states resist China’s refusal to align with the standing international rules-based order, or where China is forcing change merely because it is strong enough to do so. Ward, Jonathan D. T.. China’s Vision of Victory . The Atlas Publishing and Media Company. Kindle Edition.

China’s global power will undermine the US led global order

Ward, 2019, DR. JONATHAN D. T. WARD has been studying the rise of China for more than a decade. From travels with truck caravans in Tibet and across the South China Sea by cargo ship in his early twenties, to accessing Communist Party archives that have now been closed to the world while a PhD candidate at Oxford, to consulting for the U.S. Department of Defense and Fortune 500 organizations, Dr. Ward has brought the experience of a traveler, the discipline of a scholar, and the insight of a strategy consultant to one of the toughest, biggest challenges of our time: what does China want, how will it try to get it, and what should America do? Dr. Ward is the Founder of Atlas Organization, a Washington DC and New York based consultancy focused on the rise of India and China, and US-China global competition. He speaks Russian, Chinese, Spanish, and Arabic, China’s Vision of Victory, Kindle edition, page number at the end of the card

China will achieve what its official Xinhua News Agency specified explicitly in 2017: By 2050, two centuries after the Opium Wars, which plunged the “Middle Kingdom” into a period of hurt and shame, China is set to regain its might and re-ascend to the top of the world.6 Note the historical perspective behind this objective, which is vital. Looking forward first, however, this “re-ascendance” will mean the end of an American-led world order, the end of a world order built and sustained by the world’s democracies and rights-based societies. It will mean a world in which China is de facto the world’s leading superpower, capable of extending its military, economic, financial, and ideological influence and power into every place on earth not limited by other nations or by coalitions of nations. In order to understand and see what China’s rise is and what it means, we will consider these core elements: 1. A Vision of National Destiny 2. Strategic Geography and Military Plans 3. Economic and Technological Ambitions 4. Growing Global Reach 5. A Vision of a New World Order Each Part is meant to bring the reader to a substantial understanding of each element, in order to understand the larger picture— to see and understand the whole elephant. Ward, Jonathan D. T.. China’s Vision of Victory . The Atlas Publishing and Media Company. Kindle Edition.

China’s growing economic power means it will usurp US global leadership, threaten US militarily, erode the US economy, and create a global surveillance state

Ward, 2019, DR. JONATHAN D. T. WARD has been studying the rise of China for more than a decade. From travels with truck caravans in Tibet and across the South China Sea by cargo ship in his early twenties, to accessing Communist Party archives that have now been closed to the world while a PhD candidate at Oxford, to consulting for the U.S. Department of Defense and Fortune 500 organizations, Dr. Ward has brought the experience of a traveler, the discipline of a scholar, and the insight of a strategy consultant to one of the toughest, biggest challenges of our time: what does China want, how will it try to get it, and what should America do? Dr. Ward is the Founder of Atlas Organization, a Washington DC and New York based consultancy focused on the rise of India and China, and US-China global competition. He speaks Russian, Chinese, Spanish, and Arabic, China’s Vision of Victory, Kindle edition, page number at the end of the card

For decades since Dr. Kissinger’s first visit, US policy-makers were guided by a beautiful and very American vision. They worked toward an idea that China would eventually liberalize, reform, and otherwise become a “responsible stakeholder,” living and working alongside the United States on the world stage. The Chinese people had been our friends and allies once before, fighting against fascism in the Second World War under the Nationalist Party, now exiled to Taiwan. The People’s Republic of China was a growing market in which American business could prosper. The rise of modern China would be a force for globalization, and, together, America and China could share the world. The sum of American policymakers’ approach was a strategy called “engage but hedge.” This is one of the most consequential strategic approaches in American history— not because it has succeeded, but because it has failed. Most importantly, this strategy has brought us to the brink of the end of an American-led world. It is an approach that will eventually bring about the end of American power. The People’s Republic of China— its rise built substantially on economic empowerment through engagement with the United States— is now returning to the original ideological intentions of the Chinese Communist Party. What are these intentions? Where is China going? What does it want, not in our eyes, but in the eyes of China’s leaders? This book will answer these questions. From the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949 to Xi Jinping’s accession to power in the twenty-first century, in the eyes of Chinese leaders China’s rise has never been about sharing Asia or the world with the United States. It has been about the restoration of Chinese power and the road to unrestricted power among nations. It is the building of a superpower, and the restoration, as China’s leaders see it, of China’s position of supremacy among all nations. Only from this supreme position can China’s destiny be fulfilled. For a long and trusting moment, over more than thirty years, American policy-makers empowered this rise, perhaps not knowing where it would lead, perhaps knowing only that the Communist Party would lead China. Our present moment of engagement is finally breaking. The intentions of the Communist Party and the objectives of China’s rise are becoming clearer in America. The US national security community deals on a daily basis with a growing Chinese military that is designed to defeat the United States. Members of our Congress are waking up to the dangers for American prosperity as job losses and deindustrialization imperil the future of this country. The international community has begun to recognize the dystopian landscape of human rights abuses inside and even outside China as new technological breakthroughs enable the Communist Party to build a high-tech surveillance state unlike anything seen in history. But what is most troubling is not what China does today. It is what the Communist Party plans on for the future of the world. If China were to settle in as a large East Asian nation with arcane territorial claims against its neighbors, a modernizing military, an anachronistic ideology, and broad economic potential to capture the imaginations of businesspeople and financiers around the world, then perhaps it would remain nothing more than a distant, perhaps fascinating country— or, in Kissinger’s phrasing, a “mysterious” place. But China’s ambitions have only just begun. As Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai said to Dr. Kissinger in 1971: “It is not mysterious to us.” In November 2018, former US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson spoke words that will echo for many years: There’s this … myth that some of us who worked to engage China thought it would become a Jeffersonian democracy, or espouse a liberal Western order. We never thought that. We always knew the Communist Party would play an important, dominant role.1 Mr. Paulson knew that American engagement with China would bring about a globally empowered China and a globally empowered Chinese Communist Party. The question, then, is how well did Mr. Paulson and others around him understand the forces that they were working to empower? How well did he and others understand the Chinese Communist Party? How well did he and others around him understand China? Did Mr. Paulson and his colleagues understand the new balance of power that they were bringing about and what it would mean for the world? What we are verging on for our country— even for our world— is the prospect of a “Chinese Century.” A litany of speeches, strategy documents, and policies have poured forth from the Communist Party in recent years. All of them explain China’s near- and long-term ambitions. From outer space to the deep sea, from Africa to the Arctic, from artificial intelligence to hypersonic missiles that can “kill” American aircraft carriers, the Chinese Communist Party has mobilized its country and its people to become the global leaders in virtually every form of economic, military, technological, and diplomatic activity on earth. This is not an exaggeration. These are stated goals. This book will explain them in detail. China’s leaders are proud of their achievements and exuberant about their future. As Chairman Xi Jinping explained to his country in 2017: Rooted in a land of more than 9.6 million square kilometers, nourished by a nation’s culture of more than 5,000 years, and backed by the invincible force of more than 1.3 billion people, we have an infinitely vast stage of our era, a historical heritage of unmatched depth, and incomparable resolve that enable us to forge ahead…2 As China’s state news agency proclaimed: By 2050, two centuries after the Opium Wars, which plunged the “Middle Kingdom” [China] into a period of hurt and shame, China is set to regain its might and re-ascend to the top of the world.3 And among China’s citizens, whether by survey or by anecdote, the consensus is that China will replace the United States as the world’s leading superpower. Here is how one of the leading China scholars in Britain put it: “The way the Chinese look at it is, why shouldn’t they have a go? The British had their turn. America had its turn. Now it’s ours.” In other words, what we are witnessing, in word and deed, is China’s ambition to become the world’s supreme power and, in doing so, to transform human history. As America churns with division and internal strife, China’s leaders are designing and executing an ascendance to power on a global scale not seen since the British Empire. The time frame is important. As described by China’s leadership, the completion of China’s rise will take shape by 2049, on the hundredth anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China. At this point, China would be accepted as the dominant power on Earth, without rival, without peer. However, in practical terms, the time frame is much sooner. The next ten years will see a tipping point in the global balance of power from which the United States may never recover. By 2030, if current trends hold, China will surpass the United States as the world’s top economic power in absolute terms. Many organizations, from the World Economic Forum to the US National Intelligence Council, to a variety of global investment banks, already take this as an unavoidable outcome. From that point forward, however, when China reaches a position of economic supremacy, Americ a of China. At this point, China would be accepted as the dominant power on Earth, without rival, without peer. However, in practical terms, the time frame is much sooner. The next ten years will see a tipping point in the global balance of power from which the United States may never recover. By 2030, if current trends hold, China will surpass the United States as the world’s top economic power in absolute terms. Many organizations, from the World Economic Forum to the US National Intelligence Council, to a variety of global investment banks, already take this as an unavoidable outcome. From that point forward, however, when China reaches a position of economic supremacy, America Ward, Jonathan D. T.. China’s Vision of Victory . The Atlas Publishing and Media Company. Kindle Edition.

China’s economy is the foundation of its military power

Ward, 2019, DR. JONATHAN D. T. WARD has been studying the rise of China for more than a decade. From travels with truck caravans in Tibet and across the South China Sea by cargo ship in his early twenties, to accessing Communist Party archives that have now been closed to the world while a PhD candidate at Oxford, to consulting for the U.S. Department of Defense and Fortune 500 organizations, Dr. Ward has brought the experience of a traveler, the discipline of a scholar, and the insight of a strategy consultant to one of the toughest, biggest challenges of our time: what does China want, how will it try to get it, and what should America do? Dr. Ward is the Founder of Atlas Organization, a Washington DC and New York based consultancy focused on the rise of India and China, and US-China global competition. He speaks Russian, Chinese, Spanish, and Arabic, China’s Vision of Victory, Kindle edition, page number at the end of the card

China’s economy is the foundation of its power. It is the foundation of its military buildup, its technological advances, and its global influence. While this may have been lost on a generation of American policy-makers, it is not at all lost on the Chinese Communist Party. As an advisor to the Communist Party stated to me in Beijing in 2018, “Chinese strategy is built on China’s economic situation.” Clear and simple. In Chinese aphorism it is this: 富国强兵 “A rich country and a strong military.” These are China’s global goals. The leaders of the Chinese Communist Party have known for decades that the day would come when America questioned China’s rise. Thinking on a multi-decade time frame out to 2049, they have called 2000 to 2020 the “period of strategic opportunity.” This was the time, which is ending now, in which “the international situation” would be favorable to China. The next decade is what some have called a “decade of concern,” the time when the world begins to question and to resist China’s rise to global power. Within the next ten years, 2020 to 2030, a series of major contests that are already underway will gain even greater momentum: military, technological, industrial, financial, and diplomatic— region by region around the world, sector by sector across the economy, breakthrough by breakthrough across new technologies, domain by domain across the military balance. Within these contests, if China should surpass America, as it intends to do, the bedrock for a Chinese century will be laid in earnest. These are contests for which the Communist Party has been preparing for quite some time, and in which China is securing victory after victory as America argues and deliberates over the meaning of China’s rise. They are contests in which China has set clear goals and made extraordinary gains. The United States stands to witness a colossal turning point in less than a generation’s time. All who are alive today in America were born into a superpower. Those who are alive today may also be the ones to watch this power perish. And if this Chinese victory is complete, we will live in a “brave new world” indeed. What will it mean for America’s democratic process to be manipulated from another continent? Not by a weaker nation, such as today’s Russia, but by a far more powerful global empir Ward, Jonathan D. T.. China’s Vision of Victory . The Atlas Publishing and Media Company. Kindle Edition.

China’s economic power is the foundation of its military power

Ward, 2019, DR. JONATHAN D. T. WARD has been studying the rise of China for more than a decade. From travels with truck caravans in Tibet and across the South China Sea by cargo ship in his early twenties, to accessing Communist Party archives that have now been closed to the world while a PhD candidate at Oxford, to consulting for the U.S. Department of Defense and Fortune 500 organizations, Dr. Ward has brought the experience of a traveler, the discipline of a scholar, and the insight of a strategy consultant to one of the toughest, biggest challenges of our time: what does China want, how will it try to get it, and what should America do? Dr. Ward is the Founder of Atlas Organization, a Washington DC and New York based consultancy focused on the rise of India and China, and US-China global competition. He speaks Russian, Chinese, Spanish, and Arabic, China’s Vision of Victory, Kindle edition, page number at the end of the card

One of the primary features of the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation” is the expansion of China’s geopolitical footprint, a focus on military power and military technology, and a changing strategic geography that is redefining not only Asia, but other regions in the world. This will be covered in Part Two. It is what defense departments around the world are beginning to struggle with every day as a new reality. But this is not a book about Chinese military power alone. It is also about what Chinese leaders and scholars label “comprehensive national power.” The basis for China’s rise has been the disciplined and wildly successful focus on economic growth. Part Three describes the nature and origins of that economic reach and rise to technological eminence, linking the strategies that guide its advances in economic growth and in critical technologies. Ward, Jonathan D. T.. China’s Vision of Victory . The Atlas Publishing and Media Company. Kindle Edition.

Economic power critical to China’s military and diplomatic power

Ward, 2019, DR. JONATHAN D. T. WARD has been studying the rise of China for more than a decade. From travels with truck caravans in Tibet and across the South China Sea by cargo ship in his early twenties, to accessing Communist Party archives that have now been closed to the world while a PhD candidate at Oxford, to consulting for the U.S. Department of Defense and Fortune 500 organizations, Dr. Ward has brought the experience of a traveler, the discipline of a scholar, and the insight of a strategy consultant to one of the toughest, biggest challenges of our time: what does China want, how will it try to get it, and what should America do? Dr. Ward is the Founder of Atlas Organization, a Washington DC and New York based consultancy focused on the rise of India and China, and US-China global competition. He speaks Russian, Chinese, Spanish, and Arabic, China’s Vision of Victory, Kindle edition, page number at the end of the car China’s new global role comes from its position of economic power. Military and diplomatic power is also built on economic power. If China aims for its military to be “second to none,” it aims even higher for its economy. With economic supremacy, the rest will follow. Ward, Jonathan D. T.. China’s Vision of Victory . The Atlas Publishing and Media Company. Kindle Edition.

China’s industrial base key to its military power

Ward, 2019, DR. JONATHAN D. T. WARD has been studying the rise of China for more than a decade. From travels with truck caravans in Tibet and across the South China Sea by cargo ship in his early twenties, to accessing Communist Party archives that have now been closed to the world while a PhD candidate at Oxford, to consulting for the U.S. Department of Defense and Fortune 500 organizations, Dr. Ward has brought the experience of a traveler, the discipline of a scholar, and the insight of a strategy consultant to one of the toughest, biggest challenges of our time: what does China want, how will it try to get it, and what should America do? Dr. Ward is the Founder of Atlas Organization, a Washington DC and New York based consultancy focused on the rise of India and China, and US-China global competition. He speaks Russian, Chinese, Spanish, and Arabic, China’s Vision of Victory, Kindle edition, page number at the end of the card

Importantly, China’s industrial base doubles as a base for military power. The two, for Chinese leaders, are inseparable, especially given the Party’s view of history. China’s sense of decline and fall historically is based on a lack of technological capacity. The country was, in the eyes of generations of Chinese citizens, picked apart in defeat after defeat by the European and Japanese empires. The wide gap in military technology, as well as political and economic stagnation, is often named as the culprit in these defeats, the foundations of the “Century of Humiliation.” In short, in the view of its government and many citizens, China’s fall as a nation was the result of lagging technology and a stagnant economy. Ward, Jonathan D. T.. China’s Vision of Victory . The Atlas Publishing and Media Company. Kindle Edition.

Systemic human rights violations

Ward, 2019, DR. JONATHAN D. T. WARD has been studying the rise of China for more than a decade. From travels with truck caravans in Tibet and across the South China Sea by cargo ship in his early twenties, to accessing Communist Party archives that have now been closed to the world while a PhD candidate at Oxford, to consulting for the U.S. Department of Defense and Fortune 500 organizations, Dr. Ward has brought the experience of a traveler, the discipline of a scholar, and the insight of a strategy consultant to one of the toughest, biggest challenges of our time: what does China want, how will it try to get it, and what should America do? Dr. Ward is the Founder of Atlas Organization, a Washington DC and New York based consultancy focused on the rise of India and China, and US-China global competition. He speaks Russian, Chinese, Spanish, and Arabic, China’s Vision of Victory, Kindle edition, page number at the end of the card

In China, in addition to the repression of speech and the press, to forced detentions and even executions of political dissidents, and other continual human rights violations, the Communist Party is unrolling a “social credit system” which aims to monitor the “untrustworthy” behavior of citizens, assigning them a “credit score” as part of the Communist Party’s program of “social management.” The Party is also developing a “youth credit system” in which “dossiers will be created to carry good credit records of trustworthy young individuals.”4 Today, in the western province of Xinjiang— a vast expanse of land brought under control by China’s former emperors— the Communist Party has built numerous concentration camps for the Uighur ethnic minority population, and as many as a million people are undergoing “political re-education.” The Party has even, by some accounts, sent a million Chinese citizens to occupy the homes of the Uighur minority people in order to report on their behavior and assist the Party in choosing which ones will be sent to the camps.5 Ward, Jonathan D. T.. China’s Vision of Victory . The Atlas Publishing and Media Company. Kindle Edition.

China is not modernizing in order to integrate with the US

Ward, 2019, DR. JONATHAN D. T. WARD has been studying the rise of China for more than a decade. From travels with truck caravans in Tibet and across the South China Sea by cargo ship in his early twenties, to accessing Communist Party archives that have now been closed to the world while a PhD candidate at Oxford, to consulting for the U.S. Department of Defense and Fortune 500 organizations, Dr. Ward has brought the experience of a traveler, the discipline of a scholar, and the insight of a strategy consultant to one of the toughest, biggest challenges of our time: what does China want, how will it try to get it, and what should America do? Dr. Ward is the Founder of Atlas Organization, a Washington DC and New York based consultancy focused on the rise of India and China, and US-China global competition. He speaks Russian, Chinese, Spanish, and Arabic, China’s Vision of Victory, Kindle edition, page number at the end of the card

Modernization— the earning of money and buildup of national industrial, military, and technological power— is not, and never was, for the purpose of liberalization or integration with the wider world. Many people could imagine that, because China was getting richer and demonstrating economic progress as measured by the West, it would follow a known path toward democracy and integration with the institutions used by the rest of the world. It happened in Taiwan, it happened in South Korea and in other nations— notably those that were known in the 1990s as the “Asian Tigers,” which began as dictatorships and then became democracies. What may be true of Taiwan or South Korea is not reducible to a blanket theory of economics and governance applicable to every country on earth. Instead, China is fulfilling an objective that is nearly one hundred years old called “the resurrection of the ancestral land,” or, as the Communist Party puts it: “the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.” Technology is a part of this. Economics and military prowess are too. Geographical ambitions are central. The end of the current world order is planned. Ward, Jonathan D. T.. China’s Vision of Victory . The Atlas Publishing and Media Company. Kindle Edition.

China’s capitalists embedded in the Communist Party

Ward, 2019, DR. JONATHAN D. T. WARD has been studying the rise of China for more than a decade. From travels with truck caravans in Tibet and across the South China Sea by cargo ship in his early twenties, to accessing Communist Party archives that have now been closed to the world while a PhD candidate at Oxford, to consulting for the U.S. Department of Defense and Fortune 500 organizations, Dr. Ward has brought the experience of a traveler, the discipline of a scholar, and the insight of a strategy consultant to one of the toughest, biggest challenges of our time: what does China want, how will it try to get it, and what should America do? Dr. Ward is the Founder of Atlas Organization, a Washington DC and New York based consultancy focused on the rise of India and China, and US-China global competition. He speaks Russian, Chinese, Spanish, and Arabic, China’s Vision of Victory, Kindle edition, page number at the end of the card

China’s new entrepreneurs are a special case. As Bruce Dickson and Jie Chen explain in Allies of the State: China’s Private Entrepreneurs and Democratic Change, China’s entrepreneurs are connected and widely loyal to the Chinese state and Communist Party.48 State-owned enterprises can double as instruments of state influence and geopolitical strategy— think of the role of China’s overseas engineering companies in the Indian Ocean Region. Entrepreneurs are essentially autonomous businesspeople, often with strong Party connections. But even the country’s richest entrepreneurs must not fall afoul of the far more powerful Communist Party.49 The Party worked from a careful strategy of building up the role of private business in China without losing political control.

China racing to build the world’s largest military power

Ward, 2019, DR. JONATHAN D. T. WARD has been studying the rise of China for more than a decade. From travels with truck caravans in Tibet and across the South China Sea by cargo ship in his early twenties, to accessing Communist Party archives that have now been closed to the world while a PhD candidate at Oxford, to consulting for the U.S. Department of Defense and Fortune 500 organizations, Dr. Ward has brought the experience of a traveler, the discipline of a scholar, and the insight of a strategy consultant to one of the toughest, biggest challenges of our time: what does China want, how will it try to get it, and what should America do? Dr. Ward is the Founder of Atlas Organization, a Washington DC and New York based consultancy focused on the rise of India and China, and US-China global competition. He speaks Russian, Chinese, Spanish, and Arabic, China’s Vision of Victory, Kindle edition, page number at the end of the card

The Communist Party has declared its intention to build the world’s most powerful military, and to become the world’s leader in advanced technologies. China’s military has officially been tasked with not only national defense, but protection of China’s expanding overseas interests. China will build a globally capable military to secure its access to resources and markets in other continents. A global China will be backed by global military power and influence. The objective of China’s rise—if the “China Dream” continues— is simple but consequential for the rest of us. Built on economic power, technological mastery, and military supremacy, China will achieve what its official Xinhua News Agency specified explicitly in 2017: By 2050, two centuries after the Opium Wars, which plunged the “Middle Kingdom” into a period of hurt and shame, China is set to regain its might and re-ascend to the top of the world.6 Ward, Jonathan D. T.. China’s Vision of Victory . The Atlas Publishing and Media Company. Kindle Edition.

Control of the South China Sea means China can project power globally

Ward, 2019, DR. JONATHAN D. T. WARD has been studying the rise of China for more than a decade. From travels with truck caravans in Tibet and across the South China Sea by cargo ship in his early twenties, to accessing Communist Party archives that have now been closed to the world while a PhD candidate at Oxford, to consulting for the U.S. Department of Defense and Fortune 500 organizations, Dr. Ward has brought the experience of a traveler, the discipline of a scholar, and the insight of a strategy consultant to one of the toughest, biggest challenges of our time: what does China want, how will it try to get it, and what should America do? Dr. Ward is the Founder of Atlas Organization, a Washington DC and New York based consultancy focused on the rise of India and China, and US-China global competition. He speaks Russian, Chinese, Spanish, and Arabic, China’s Vision of Victory, Kindle edition, page number at the end of the card

This justification of legitimate “rights and interests” is deployed in the “near seas,” but is also likely to be used around the world as China’s military reach grows. The South China Sea, a body of water which sits at the juncture of two great oceans, and at the heart of an explicit vision of global trading routes linked back to China, is a stepping stone, not only to the Indian Ocean and West Pacific, but to the waterways of the world. And the South China Sea is now already under China’s effective control. In the words of a testimony before the US Congress by Admiral Philip Davidson, Commander of US Pacific Command, China’s “forward operating bases” in the South China Sea “appear complete”: Once occupied, China will be able to extend its influence thousands of miles to the south and project power deep into Oceania. The PLA will be able to use these bases to challenge U.S. presence in the region, and any forces deployed to the islands would easily overwhelm the military forces of any other South China Sea-claimants. In short, China is now capable of controlling the South China Sea in all scenarios short of war with the United States.31 What does control of the “near seas” and their “island chains” achieve for China? In addition to the ability to “extend its influence [for] thousands of miles,” it has an even more immediate effect on China’s neighborhood as China lays its stepping stones throughout the Indo-Pacific.

China nuclear modernization program

Ward, 2019, DR. JONATHAN D. T. WARD has been studying the rise of China for more than a decade. From travels with truck caravans in Tibet and across the South China Sea by cargo ship in his early twenties, to accessing Communist Party archives that have now been closed to the world while a PhD candidate at Oxford, to consulting for the U.S. Department of Defense and Fortune 500 organizations, Dr. Ward has brought the experience of a traveler, the discipline of a scholar, and the insight of a strategy consultant to one of the toughest, biggest challenges of our time: what does China want, how will it try to get it, and what should America do? Dr. Ward is the Founder of Atlas Organization, a Washington DC and New York based consultancy focused on the rise of India and China, and US-China global competition. He speaks Russian, Chinese, Spanish, and Arabic, China’s Vision of Victory, Kindle edition, page number at the end of the card

China’s military buildup includes a major nuclear modernization program. What this means is that military power— deterrence as a whole— is a package. So, just as naval patrols in the South China Sea are meant to have an effect on the will of an adversary, the fact that all Chinese military assets are an extension of a nuclear-armed state means that the entire escalation ladder— the risk of escalation— exists any time a nation militarily engages China in its region, and potentially elsewhere in the world. In the words of an American commentator: China today is deploying, not studying, is deploying two new types of ICBMs, one new type of SLBM, and a new class of SSBNs, four of which are in the water. And a new nuclear air- launched cruise missile. Reportedly, a second new type of SSBNs is in development, as is a new strategic bomber. And China also maintains a robust arsenal of shorter-range nuclear forces. These capabilities must be regarded as a key backdrop to China’s aggressive maritime policy of seeking to annex the South China Sea.63 Ward, Jonathan D. T.. China’s Vision of Victory . The Atlas Publishing and Media Company. Kindle Edition.

China military development across many areas

Ward, 2019, DR. JONATHAN D. T. WARD has been studying the rise of China for more than a decade. From travels with truck caravans in Tibet and across the South China Sea by cargo ship in his early twenties, to accessing Communist Party archives that have now been closed to the world while a PhD candidate at Oxford, to consulting for the U.S. Department of Defense and Fortune 500 organizations, Dr. Ward has brought the experience of a traveler, the discipline of a scholar, and the insight of a strategy consultant to one of the toughest, biggest challenges of our time: what does China want, how will it try to get it, and what should America do? Dr. Ward is the Founder of Atlas Organization, a Washington DC and New York based consultancy focused on the rise of India and China, and US-China global competition. He speaks Russian, Chinese, Spanish, and Arabic, China’s Vision of Victory, Kindle edition, page number at the end of the card

Today, China’s military has been tasked with the following strategic missions: • to deal with a wide range of emergencies and military threats, and effectively safeguard the sovereignty and security of China’s territorial land, air, and sea • to resolutely safeguard the unification of the motherland • to safeguard China’s security and interests in new domains • to safeguard the security of China’s overseas interests • to maintain strategic deterrence and carry out nuclear counterattack.

China will buy tech and get it through collaboration

Ward, 2019, DR. JONATHAN D. T. WARD has been studying the rise of China for more than a decade. From travels with truck caravans in Tibet and across the South China Sea by cargo ship in his early twenties, to accessing Communist Party archives that have now been closed to the world while a PhD candidate at Oxford, to consulting for the U.S. Department of Defense and Fortune 500 organizations, Dr. Ward has brought the experience of a traveler, the discipline of a scholar, and the insight of a strategy consultant to one of the toughest, biggest challenges of our time: what does China want, how will it try to get it, and what should America do? Dr. Ward is the Founder of Atlas Organization, a Washington DC and New York based consultancy focused on the rise of India and China, and US-China global competition. He speaks Russian, Chinese, Spanish, and Arabic, China’s Vision of Victory, Kindle edition, page number at the end of the card

Analysts have expressed concern over China’s purchase of robotics companies in Europe, which could result in potential military use, noting that “the introduction of robotics to the battlefield will ultimately allow the PLA to specialize in high-end warfare.”44 And German engineering has reportedly played a role in the buildup of the Chinese navy, with German technology finding its way into Chinese attack submarines and frigates.45 Meanwhile, China’s next-generation fighter jets are widely known to be made from stolen plans from the United States.46 Universities have also joined the fun. Take Oxford’s annual “Oxford China Lecture” in Beijing in 2017, with the subject “Quantum Technology: A New Era in Computing.” Computing.”47 Technology theft, transfer, acquisition, and research applied to China’s industrial base is building the military, which is meant to fight the United States and its allies. As noted in Part Two, the Communist Party has also brought China’s corporations and military together through the policy of “Civil Military Fusion.” Here, China’s private sector and military technology development combine, spanning a wide range of emerging technologies from artificial intelligence to robotics. As the Communist Party is removes the lines between civilian and military technology development under “Civil Military Fusion,” it is all the more concerning as we have yet to understand the full consequences of technology transfers from the US and Europe to China. Ward, Jonathan D. T.. China’s Vision of Victory . The Atlas Publishing and Media Company. Kindle Edition.

Theft

Ward, 2019, DR. JONATHAN D. T. WARD has been studying the rise of China for more than a decade. From travels with truck caravans in Tibet and across the South China Sea by cargo ship in his early twenties, to accessing Communist Party archives that have now been closed to the world while a PhD candidate at Oxford, to consulting for the U.S. Department of Defense and Fortune 500 organizations, Dr. Ward has brought the experience of a traveler, the discipline of a scholar, and the insight of a strategy consultant to one of the toughest, biggest challenges of our time: what does China want, how will it try to get it, and what should America do? Dr. Ward is the Founder of Atlas Organization, a Washington DC and New York based consultancy focused on the rise of India and China, and US-China global competition. He speaks Russian, Chinese, Spanish, and Arabic, China’s Vision of Victory, Kindle edition, page number at the end of the card

China’s long-term strategy is not about granting foreign companies special access to their market. It’s about building a system in which Chinese companies and innovation satisfy the vast internal market, while exporting around the world. But, for now, foreign companies are necessary helpers in making the leap. The United States is noticing, and a shift is underway toward long-term strategic competition. The evidence and perspectives brought up in  Congressional hearing, “China’s Technological Rise: Challenges to US Innovation and Security,” help us understand the situation overall: China has undertaken a comprehensive industrial strategy to advance domestic high-tech industry through nonmarket means. Massive state subsidies and zero-sum tactics degrade foreign competitiveness, and the systematic and widespread theft of intellectual property and forced transfers of technology destroys innovation and research investments. Today is World Intellectual Property Day, a fitting time for a reminder that protecting U.S. innovation must be an inviolable part of our national strategy toward China. And: These predatory industrial policies are in full display in China’s ongoing attempts to dominate critical high-technology supply chains such as semiconductor production. The economic stakes are high. The United States is the world’s leader in semiconductors. The industry employs more Americans than the steel industry, and semiconductors are our fourth most valuable export.38 The next big business story from China will not be about a revolution in market access for foreign firms. It is much more likely to be about China’s “national champions” going global, competing with these same foreign firms from whom they gained technology and knowhow. Importantly, the massive theft of intellectual property from companies around the world is at the heart of China’s “economic miracle.” And it is even more important for the next steps that the country must take. Famously referred to as “the greatest transfer of wealth in history,”39 the systematic industrial espionage campaign waged by the Chinese state has effectively turned American corporations into the research and development arms of the Chinese state and its corporations. China can then go on to apply this research and development on far larger economies of scale, harnessing the advantage that Chinese leaders have understood for generations— the size of the population property from companies around the world is at the heart of China’s “economic miracle.” And it is even more important for the nex steps that the country must take. Famously referred to as “the greatest transfer of wealth in history,”39 the systematic industrial espionage campaign waged by the Chinese state has effectively turned American corporations into the research and development arms of the Chinese state and its corporations. China can then go on to apply this research and development on far larger economies of scale, harnessing the advantage that Chinese leaders have understood for generations— the size of the population.  Despite reforms and the role of private enterprise in China, the Communist Party retains control over most industries and many companies, including those at the very top of the Fortune Global 500 (FG 500), a list of the world’s largest corporations by revenue. The Party decides which industries matter and invests massive resources. In essence, international corporations are in competition with a 12 trillion-dollar authoritarian super-architect with global geopolitical objectives. Whether it is pouring billions into robotics, biotechnology, and quantum computing, or snapping up strategic acquisitions such as deep-sea mining corporations and leading-edge aerospace composites companies, China’s innovation and technology strategy is built on forced technology transfer, cybertheft, massive state-led capital investment, and global strategic acquisitions done by state-run corporations.

Cybertheft—the most widely known example of the interference of the Chinese state in global business—has ranged from theft of designs for advanced US fighter planes and gas distribution networks to “personal information from healthcare providers.” The process has lasted years, with “almost daily raids on Silicon Valley firms, military contractors and other commercial targets.”40 In 2016, Xi Jinping assured President Barack Obama that China would curb the theft of intellectual property from the United States. But the reality appears to be different. The New York Times, reviewing a widely cited report on Chinese cyber-espionage, explained that after this summit: Chinese attacks have decreased in volume, but increased in sophistication. The result is that Chinese hackers are now acting more like Russian hackers: They pick their targets more carefully, and cover their tracks. We see a threat that is less voluminous but more focused, calculated, and still successful in compromising corporate networks, the report said.41 Outbound mergers and acquisitions are another vital component of China’s industrial strategy. Acquisitions from the seemingly obscure corners of the tech world have reportedly led to breakthroughs not only in civilian industry, but also in China’s military-industrial base. Ward, Jonathan D. T.. China’s Vision of Victory . The Atlas Publishing and Media Company. Kindle Edition.

China wants to win the AI arms race

Ward, 2019, DR. JONATHAN D. T. WARD has been studying the rise of China for more than a decade. From travels with truck caravans in Tibet and across the South China Sea by cargo ship in his early twenties, to accessing Communist Party archives that have now been closed to the world while a PhD candidate at Oxford, to consulting for the U.S. Department of Defense and Fortune 500 organizations, Dr. Ward has brought the experience of a traveler, the discipline of a scholar, and the insight of a strategy consultant to one of the toughest, biggest challenges of our time: what does China want, how will it try to get it, and what should America do? Dr. Ward is the Founder of Atlas Organization, a Washington DC and New York based consultancy focused on the rise of India and China, and US-China global competition. He speaks Russian, Chinese, Spanish, and Arabic, China’s Vision of Victory, Kindle edition, page number at the end of the card

To offer a flavor of this perspective, here’s an excerpt from a key document on China’s military and economic future. The State Council’s New Generation of Artificial Intelligence Development Plan, in a section called “The Strategic Situation”: AI has become a new focus of international competition. AI is a strategic technology that will lead in the future; the world’s major developed countries are taking the development of AI as a major strategy to enhance national competitiveness and protect national security; intensifying the introduction of plans and strategies for this core technology, top talent, standards and regulations, etc.; and trying to seize the initiative in the new round of international science and technology competition. At present, China’s situation in national security and international competition is more complex, and [China] must, looking at the world, take the development of AI to the national strategic level with systematic layout, take the initiative in planning, firmly seize the strategic initiative in the new stage of international competition in AI development, to create new competitive advantage, opening up the development of new space, and effectively protecting national security.103 Ward, Jonathan D. T.. China’s Vision of Victory . The Atlas Publishing and Media Company. Kindle Edition.

China’s advanced technologies surpassing the US now

Ward, 2019, DR. JONATHAN D. T. WARD has been studying the rise of China for more than a decade. From travels with truck caravans in Tibet and across the South China Sea by cargo ship in his early twenties, to accessing Communist Party archives that have now been closed to the world while a PhD candidate at Oxford, to consulting for the U.S. Department of Defense and Fortune 500 organizations, Dr. Ward has brought the experience of a traveler, the discipline of a scholar, and the insight of a strategy consultant to one of the toughest, biggest challenges of our time: what does China want, how will it try to get it, and what should America do? Dr. Ward is the Founder of Atlas Organization, a Washington DC and New York based consultancy focused on the rise of India and China, and US-China global competition. He speaks Russian, Chinese, Spanish, and Arabic, China’s Vision of Victory, Kindle edition, page number at the end of the card

Today, China’s economic power is visible across numerous industries, and the ambitions of the Chinese state are visible in every major emerging technology of the twenty-first century. Through global acquisitions, state-led strategic investment, investment, and global cyber- and human espionage, China’s state and private corporations have made great gains in everything from telecommunications, semiconductors, robotics, aerospace, automobiles, space industry, and agricultural and industrial machinery, and even in major technologies where the US has always been confident in its ability to lead, from artificial intelligence, autonomous vehicle development, big-data processing, smart appliances, to other Internet of Things-driven industries. The creation of an advanced industrial base is essential to the Communist Party’s ambition of catching up with and ultimately surpassing the United States as the leading technological power. Ward, Jonathan D. T.. China’s Vision of Victory . The Atlas Publishing and Media Company. Kindle Edition.

Counterarguments against China’s ascendancy are silly

Ward, 2019, DR. JONATHAN D. T. WARD has been studying the rise of China for more than a decade. From travels with truck caravans in Tibet and across the South China Sea by cargo ship in his early twenties, to accessing Communist Party archives that have now been closed to the world while a PhD candidate at Oxford, to consulting for the U.S. Department of Defense and Fortune 500 organizations, Dr. Ward has brought the experience of a traveler, the discipline of a scholar, and the insight of a strategy consultant to one of the toughest, biggest challenges of our time: what does China want, how will it try to get it, and what should America do? Dr. Ward is the Founder of Atlas Organization, a Washington DC and New York based consultancy focused on the rise of India and China, and US-China global competition. He speaks Russian, Chinese, Spanish, and Arabic, China’s Vision of Victory, Kindle edition, page number at the end of the card

Counterarguments about China’s ascendency— that is, that it will not happen— stress problems with the economy. And these certainly exist. Think about resource misallocation— epitomized by China’s “ghost citie,” the ultimate “bridges to nowhere” entire metropolises planned and executed where not a soul resides. Think about a looming housing bubble and aging demographics—“Will China get old before it gets rich?”— and potentially the most important issue of all— the massive debt that has funded growth for years. China’s economy is slowing. The double-digit growth rates that lasted thirty years are over now. Until roughly 2014, China was adding the equivalent of the entire GDP of India every two years.27 While this is no longer true, China still adds more to its GDP each year than any other nation. Even with slower Chinese growth, China is on track to surpass the United States in terms of real GDP in the 2030s. The US National Intelligence Council has this factored into its thinking: “China alone will probably have the largest economy, surpassing that of the United States a few years before 2030,”28 and the idea has become commonplace from international security circles to global investment banks. Not if— but when—will China become the top economy in the world? Chinese state media, a central location for the Communist Party’s conversation with its own people, has changed the tune on breakneck economic growth. It is no longer a national imperative to grow at any speed as it was in prior years. The Party now speaks of “balanced” growth and environmental need, changing the narrative of the 2000s. Chinese leaders focus as much on managing the narrative as managing the economy. Messaging is a feature of any government. Media briefings, government relationships with journalists, and phenomena such as social media activities by national leaders all massage public perceptions. Ward, Jonathan D. T.. China’s Vision of Victory . The Atlas Publishing and Media Company. Kindle Edition.

Massive economic growth and development now

Ward, 2019, DR. JONATHAN D. T. WARD has been studying the rise of China for more than a decade. From travels with truck caravans in Tibet and across the South China Sea by cargo ship in his early twenties, to accessing Communist Party archives that have now been closed to the world while a PhD candidate at Oxford, to consulting for the U.S. Department of Defense and Fortune 500 organizations, Dr. Ward has brought the experience of a traveler, the discipline of a scholar, and the insight of a strategy consultant to one of the toughest, biggest challenges of our time: what does China want, how will it try to get it, and what should America do? Dr. Ward is the Founder of Atlas Organization, a Washington DC and New York based consultancy focused on the rise of India and China, and US-China global competition. He speaks Russian, Chinese, Spanish, and Arabic, China’s Vision of Victory, Kindle edition, page number at the end of the card

THE WORLD HAS BEEN LIVING WITH CHINA’S “ECONOMIC MIRACLE” for over thirty years. Hundreds of millions have been lifted from poverty. It has become the manufacturing power of the world— approaching the industrial output of the United States and Japan combined. Over 30 of the world’s 100 largest cities are in China, and over 100 cities in China have a population of one million or more. China has the largest labor force on the planet— over 800 million people. Operating on “Five Year Plans”— once laughed at in a post-Cold War world—the country hasWard, Jonathan D. T.. China’s Vision of Victory . The Atlas Publishing and Media Company. Kindle Edition.