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2020-21 Politics Update (77+ cards)

2020-21 Politics Update (77+ cards)

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98-Biden ahead, but Trump can still winGeoffrey

Skelly, 9-23, 20, https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-supporters-arent-shy-but-polls-could-still-be-missing-some-of-them/, Trump Supporters Aren’t ‘Shy,’ But Polls Could Still Be Missing Some Of Them

This obsession with finding hidden pockets of support for Trump is part of a larger phenomenon we’ve observed for a while now: Trump is down in the polls, and has been for months, but if you ask Americans if they think he will win, many still say yes. And to be clear, Trump can win. We think he has a nearly 1 in 4 shot of doing so in our forecast, but that doesn’t mean he’s not an underdog. This is similar to what we said in the lead-up to the election in 2016. Then, Trump was an ordinary, average polling error away from winning the election, in which if he be

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